Evidence for influenza and RSV interaction from 10 years of enhanced surveillance in Nha Trang, Vietnam, a modelling study.
Journal
PLoS computational biology
ISSN: 1553-7358
Titre abrégé: PLoS Comput Biol
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 101238922
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
06 2022
06 2022
Historique:
received:
04
11
2021
accepted:
20
05
2022
revised:
07
07
2022
pubmed:
25
6
2022
medline:
12
7
2022
entrez:
24
6
2022
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV) interact within their host posing the concern for impacts on heterologous viruses following vaccination. We aimed to estimate the population level impact of their interaction. We developed a dynamic age-stratified two-pathogen mathematical model that includes pathogen interaction through competition for infection and enhanced severity of dual infections. We used parallel tempering to fit its parameters to 11 years of enhanced hospital-based surveillance for acute respiratory illnesses (ARI) in children under 5 years old in Nha Trang, Vietnam. The data supported either a 41% (95%CrI: 36-54) reduction in susceptibility following infection and for 10.0 days (95%CrI 7.1-12.8) thereafter, or no change in susceptibility following infection. We estimate that co-infection increased the probability for an infection in <2y old children to be reported 7.2 fold (95%CrI 5.0-11.4); or 16.6 fold (95%CrI 14.5-18.4) in the moderate or low interaction scenarios. Absence of either pathogen was not to the detriment of the other. We find stronger evidence for severity enhancing than for acquisition limiting interaction. In this setting vaccination against either pathogen is unlikely to have a major detrimental effect on the burden of disease caused by the other.
Identifiants
pubmed: 35749561
doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010234
pii: PCOMPBIOL-D-21-01994
pmc: PMC9262224
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
e1010234Subventions
Organisme : Wellcome Trust
Pays : United Kingdom
Organisme : Medical Research Council
ID : MR/N013638/1
Pays : United Kingdom
Organisme : Department of Health
ID : NIHR200908
Pays : United Kingdom
Organisme : Wellcome Trust
ID : 208812/Z/17/Z
Pays : United Kingdom
Organisme : Medical Research Council
ID : MR/S003975/1
Pays : United Kingdom
Organisme : Medical Research Council
ID : MC_PC 19065
Pays : United Kingdom
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
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