Evaluating recurrent episodes of malaria incidence in Timika, Indonesia, through a Markovian multiple-state model.
IRS
ITNs
Malaria
Markovian multiple-state model
Recurrent episodes
Journal
Infectious Disease Modelling
ISSN: 2468-0427
Titre abrégé: Infect Dis Model
Pays: China
ID NLM: 101692406
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Sep 2022
Sep 2022
Historique:
received:
21
11
2021
revised:
30
03
2022
accepted:
31
05
2022
entrez:
27
6
2022
pubmed:
28
6
2022
medline:
28
6
2022
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
The high prevalence of malaria in endemic areas generally stems from recurrence events, characterized by the appearance of malaria symptoms at the time of examination; nearly every resident is at risk of experiencing such a recurrence. The verified presence of This study aims to identify the transition probabilities of malaria recurrence with and without control strategies. We use data from the medical records of malaria patients from the Naena Muktipura sub-health center in Timika, Papua, Indonesia, from March 2020 to March 2021. The data were grouped into two age categories: those under or over 24 years. The incidence of malaria in this area was modeled using a Markovian multiple-state model, dividing the incidence data based on the character of the patient's condition (Undetected Parasitaemia, Confirmed, or Aparasitaemic states) in order to obtain the patient's transition probabilities in each state. Furthermore, we simulate the recurrence probability given specific control strategies. There were 964 visits to the sub-health center at Naena Muktipura in which symptoms of malaria were reported. Specifically, the number of the malaria incidences in the groups under and over age 24 were 456 and 508, respectively. The modeling results indicate that the probability of recurrence in the over-24 age group is generally higher than that in the under-24 age group. However, the probability of this recurrence decreases over time. Furthermore, providing a control strategy can reduce the probability of recurrence and increase the probability of recovery for these patients. In endemic areas, adherence to treatment and preventive measures can accelerate the healing process and reduce the probability of malaria recurrence. With proper treatment management, the use of ITNs and the application of IRS, the incidence of malaria can be reduced and recovery can be accelerated.
Sections du résumé
Background
UNASSIGNED
The high prevalence of malaria in endemic areas generally stems from recurrence events, characterized by the appearance of malaria symptoms at the time of examination; nearly every resident is at risk of experiencing such a recurrence. The verified presence of
Objective
UNASSIGNED
This study aims to identify the transition probabilities of malaria recurrence with and without control strategies.
Methods
UNASSIGNED
We use data from the medical records of malaria patients from the Naena Muktipura sub-health center in Timika, Papua, Indonesia, from March 2020 to March 2021. The data were grouped into two age categories: those under or over 24 years. The incidence of malaria in this area was modeled using a Markovian multiple-state model, dividing the incidence data based on the character of the patient's condition (Undetected Parasitaemia, Confirmed, or Aparasitaemic states) in order to obtain the patient's transition probabilities in each state. Furthermore, we simulate the recurrence probability given specific control strategies.
Results
UNASSIGNED
There were 964 visits to the sub-health center at Naena Muktipura in which symptoms of malaria were reported. Specifically, the number of the malaria incidences in the groups under and over age 24 were 456 and 508, respectively. The modeling results indicate that the probability of recurrence in the over-24 age group is generally higher than that in the under-24 age group. However, the probability of this recurrence decreases over time. Furthermore, providing a control strategy can reduce the probability of recurrence and increase the probability of recovery for these patients.
Conclusion
UNASSIGNED
In endemic areas, adherence to treatment and preventive measures can accelerate the healing process and reduce the probability of malaria recurrence. With proper treatment management, the use of ITNs and the application of IRS, the incidence of malaria can be reduced and recovery can be accelerated.
Identifiants
pubmed: 35754556
doi: 10.1016/j.idm.2022.05.008
pii: S2468-0427(22)00032-X
pmc: PMC9201011
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Pagination
261-276Informations de copyright
© 2022 The Authors.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
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