When and how do business shutdowns work? Evidence from Italy's first COVID-19 wave.
COVID-19
Italy
business shutdowns
mortality
Journal
Health economics
ISSN: 1099-1050
Titre abrégé: Health Econ
Pays: England
ID NLM: 9306780
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
09 2022
09 2022
Historique:
revised:
31
12
2021
received:
23
09
2021
accepted:
21
02
2022
pubmed:
28
6
2022
medline:
10
8
2022
entrez:
27
6
2022
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Governments around the world have adopted unprecedented policies to deal with COVID-19. This paper zooms in on business shutdowns and investigates their effectiveness in reducing mortality. We leverage highly granular death registry data for almost 5000 Italian municipalities in a diff-in-diff approach that allows us to mitigate endogeneity concerns credibly. Our results, which are robust to controlling for a host of co-factors, offer strong evidence that business shutdowns effectively curb mortality. We calculate that they may have reduced the death toll from the first wave of COVID-19 in Italy by about 40%. Our findings also highlight that timeliness is key - by acting 1 week earlier, their effectiveness could have been increased by an additional 5%. Finally, shutdowns should be targeted. Closing service activities with a high degree of interpersonal contact saves the most lives. Shutting down production activities, while substantially reducing mobility, only has mild effects on mortality.
Identifiants
pubmed: 35759352
doi: 10.1002/hec.4502
pmc: PMC9349832
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
1823-1843Informations de copyright
© 2022 OECD. Health Economics © 2022 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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