No excess mortality among working-age Italians during the Omicron wave of Covid-19.
Journal
La Medicina del lavoro
ISSN: 0025-7818
Titre abrégé: Med Lav
Pays: Italy
ID NLM: 0401176
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
28 Jun 2022
28 Jun 2022
Historique:
received:
14
06
2022
accepted:
15
06
2022
entrez:
29
6
2022
pubmed:
30
6
2022
medline:
2
7
2022
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
This study provides updated estimates of the excess deaths in Italy with a focus on the working-age population. Over-dispersed Poisson regression models, fitted on 2011-2019 mortality data, and including terms for age, calendar year and a smooth function of the week of the year, were used to estimate the expected number of deaths during the Covid-19 pandemic. The excess deaths were then obtained by the difference between observed and expected deaths and reported according to the pandemic periods defined by the predominant circulating variant of SARS-CoV-2. Around 170,700 excess deaths at all ages were estimated between March 2020 and March 2022 in Italy with most of the excess occurring during the pre-Delta and Delta period, and 2930 excess deaths (+2.5%) during the Omicron wave. The excesses among the working age population were: 10,425 deaths (+11.8%) during the pre-Delta period, 2460 (+9.4%) during the Delta wave, 283 (+2.2%) during the transition period to Delta. Mortality was lower than expected during the Omicron wave (-6.1%). Over the periods preceding the Omicron wave, Covid-19 caused around 12,800 excess deaths among individuals of working age, accounting for over 10% excess death. This excess was no longer observed during the Omicron wave.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
BACKGROUND
This study provides updated estimates of the excess deaths in Italy with a focus on the working-age population.
METHODS
METHODS
Over-dispersed Poisson regression models, fitted on 2011-2019 mortality data, and including terms for age, calendar year and a smooth function of the week of the year, were used to estimate the expected number of deaths during the Covid-19 pandemic. The excess deaths were then obtained by the difference between observed and expected deaths and reported according to the pandemic periods defined by the predominant circulating variant of SARS-CoV-2.
RESULTS
RESULTS
Around 170,700 excess deaths at all ages were estimated between March 2020 and March 2022 in Italy with most of the excess occurring during the pre-Delta and Delta period, and 2930 excess deaths (+2.5%) during the Omicron wave. The excesses among the working age population were: 10,425 deaths (+11.8%) during the pre-Delta period, 2460 (+9.4%) during the Delta wave, 283 (+2.2%) during the transition period to Delta. Mortality was lower than expected during the Omicron wave (-6.1%).
CONCLUSIONS
CONCLUSIONS
Over the periods preceding the Omicron wave, Covid-19 caused around 12,800 excess deaths among individuals of working age, accounting for over 10% excess death. This excess was no longer observed during the Omicron wave.
Identifiants
pubmed: 35766642
doi: 10.23749/mdl.v113i3.13092
pmc: PMC9437653
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
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