Estimating the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on US SARS-CoV-2 infections in the first year of the pandemic.
SARS-CoV-2
epidemic modelling
non-pharmacological intervention
Journal
Royal Society open science
ISSN: 2054-5703
Titre abrégé: R Soc Open Sci
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101647528
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Jun 2022
Jun 2022
Historique:
received:
18
05
2021
accepted:
10
06
2022
entrez:
1
7
2022
pubmed:
2
7
2022
medline:
2
7
2022
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
SARS-CoV-2 emerged in late 2019 as a zoonotic infection of humans, and proceeded to cause a worldwide pandemic of historic magnitude. Here, we use a simple epidemiological model and consider the full range of initial estimates from published studies for infection and recovery rates, seasonality, changes in mobility, the effectiveness of masks and the fraction of people wearing them. Monte Carlo simulations are used to simulate the progression of possible pandemics and we show a match for the real progression of the pandemic during 2020 with an
Identifiants
pubmed: 35774134
doi: 10.1098/rsos.210875
pii: rsos210875
pmc: PMC9240671
doi:
Banques de données
figshare
['10.6084/m9.figshare.c.6049249']
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Pagination
210875Subventions
Organisme : NIAID NIH HHS
ID : DP1 AI175471
Pays : United States
Organisme : NIDA NIH HHS
ID : DP1 DA046108
Pays : United States
Organisme : NIAID NIH HHS
ID : R01 AI137011
Pays : United States
Organisme : NIH HHS
ID : R01 OD034046
Pays : United States
Informations de copyright
© 2022 The Authors.
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