External Validation of the Prostate Biopsy Collaborative Group Risk Calculator and the Rotterdam Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator in a Swedish Population-based Screening Cohort.

External validation study Prostate cancer Prostate cancer screening Recalibration of risk prediction tools Risk calculators

Journal

European urology open science
ISSN: 2666-1683
Titre abrégé: Eur Urol Open Sci
Pays: Netherlands
ID NLM: 101771568

Informations de publication

Date de publication:
Jul 2022
Historique:
accepted: 14 04 2022
entrez: 11 7 2022
pubmed: 12 7 2022
medline: 12 7 2022
Statut: epublish

Résumé

External validation of risk calculators (RCs) is necessary to determine their clinical applicability beyond the setting in which these were developed. To assess the performance of the Rotterdam Prostate Cancer RC (RPCRC) and the Prostate Biopsy Collaborative Group RC (PBCG-RC). We used data from the prospective, population-based STHLM3 screening study, performed in 2012-2015. Participants with prostate-specific antigen ≥3 ng/ml who underwent systematic prostate biopsies were included. Probabilities for clinically significant prostate cancer (csPCa), defined as International Society of Urological Pathology grade ≥2, were calculated for each participant. External validity was assessed by calibration, discrimination, and clinical usefulness for both original and recalibrated models. Out of 5841 men, 1054 (18%) had csPCa. Distribution of risk predictions differed between RCs; median risks for csPCa using the RPCRC and PBCG-RC were 3.3% (interquartile range [IQR] 2.1-7.1%) and 20% (IQR 15-28%), respectively. The correlation between RC risk estimates on individual level was moderate (Spearman's Assessment of calibration is essential to ensure the clinical value of risk prediction tools. The PBCG-RC provided clinical benefit in its current version online. On the contrary, the RPCRC cannot be recommended in this setting. Predicting the probability of finding prostate cancer on biopsy differed between two assessed risk calculators. After recalibration, the agreement of the models improved, and both were shown to be clinically useful.

Sections du résumé

Background UNASSIGNED
External validation of risk calculators (RCs) is necessary to determine their clinical applicability beyond the setting in which these were developed.
Objective UNASSIGNED
To assess the performance of the Rotterdam Prostate Cancer RC (RPCRC) and the Prostate Biopsy Collaborative Group RC (PBCG-RC).
Design setting and participants UNASSIGNED
We used data from the prospective, population-based STHLM3 screening study, performed in 2012-2015. Participants with prostate-specific antigen ≥3 ng/ml who underwent systematic prostate biopsies were included.
Outcome measurements and statistical analysis UNASSIGNED
Probabilities for clinically significant prostate cancer (csPCa), defined as International Society of Urological Pathology grade ≥2, were calculated for each participant. External validity was assessed by calibration, discrimination, and clinical usefulness for both original and recalibrated models.
Results and limitations UNASSIGNED
Out of 5841 men, 1054 (18%) had csPCa. Distribution of risk predictions differed between RCs; median risks for csPCa using the RPCRC and PBCG-RC were 3.3% (interquartile range [IQR] 2.1-7.1%) and 20% (IQR 15-28%), respectively. The correlation between RC risk estimates on individual level was moderate (Spearman's
Conclusions UNASSIGNED
Assessment of calibration is essential to ensure the clinical value of risk prediction tools. The PBCG-RC provided clinical benefit in its current version online. On the contrary, the RPCRC cannot be recommended in this setting.
Patient summary UNASSIGNED
Predicting the probability of finding prostate cancer on biopsy differed between two assessed risk calculators. After recalibration, the agreement of the models improved, and both were shown to be clinically useful.

Identifiants

pubmed: 35813248
doi: 10.1016/j.euros.2022.04.010
pii: S2666-1683(22)00585-7
pmc: PMC9257644
doi:

Types de publication

Journal Article

Langues

eng

Pagination

1-7

Informations de copyright

© 2022 The Author(s).

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Auteurs

Jan Chandra Engel (J)

Department of Clinical Sciences at Danderyd Hospital, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.

Thorgerdur Palsdottir (T)

Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.

Donna Ankerst (D)

Department of Mathematics and Life Science Systems, Technical University of Munich, Munich, Germany.

Sebastiaan Remmers (S)

Department of Urology, Erasmus MC Cancer Institute, Erasmus University Medical Center, Rotterdam, The Netherlands.

Ashkan Mortezavi (A)

Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.
Department of Urology, University Hospital Basel, Basel, Switzerland.

Venkatesh Chellappa (V)

Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.

Lars Egevad (L)

Department of Oncology-Pathology, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.

Henrik Grönberg (H)

Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.

Martin Eklund (M)

Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.

Tobias Nordström (T)

Department of Clinical Sciences at Danderyd Hospital, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.
Department of Medical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Karolinska Institutet, Stockholm, Sweden.

Classifications MeSH