Modelling to infer the role of animals in gambiense human African trypanosomiasis transmission and elimination in the DRC.
Journal
PLoS neglected tropical diseases
ISSN: 1935-2735
Titre abrégé: PLoS Negl Trop Dis
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 101291488
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
07 2022
07 2022
Historique:
received:
23
12
2021
accepted:
22
06
2022
revised:
21
07
2022
pubmed:
12
7
2022
medline:
26
7
2022
entrez:
11
7
2022
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) has been targeted for elimination of transmission (EoT) to humans by 2030. Whilst this ambitious goal is rapidly approaching, there remain fundamental questions about the presence of non-human animal transmission cycles and their potential role in slowing progress towards, or even preventing, EoT. In this study we focus on the country with the most gHAT disease burden, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), and use mathematical modelling to assess whether animals may contribute to transmission in specific regions, and if so, how their presence could impact the likelihood and timing of EoT. By fitting two model variants-one with, and one without animal transmission-to the human case data from 2000-2016 we estimate model parameters for 158 endemic health zones of the DRC. We evaluate the statistical support for each model variant in each health zone and infer the contribution of animals to overall transmission and how this could impact predicted time to EoT. We conclude that there are 24/158 health zones where there is substantial to decisive statistical support for some animal transmission. However-even in these regions-we estimate that animals would be extremely unlikely to maintain transmission on their own. Animal transmission could hamper progress towards EoT in some settings, with projections under continuing interventions indicating that the number of health zones expected to achieve EoT by 2030 reduces from 68/158 to 61/158 if animal transmission is included in the model. With supplementary vector control (at a modest 60% tsetse reduction) added to medical screening and treatment interventions, the predicted number of health zones meeting the goal increases to 147/158 for the model including animal transmission. This is due to the impact of vector reduction on transmission to and from all hosts.
Identifiants
pubmed: 35816487
doi: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0010599
pii: PNTD-D-21-01789
pmc: PMC9302778
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
e0010599Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
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