A nomogram for predicting stones recurrence in patients with bile duct stones undergoing laparoscopic common bile duct exploration.
LCBDE
bile duct stones
nomogram
recurrence
risk factors
Journal
Annals of gastroenterological surgery
ISSN: 2475-0328
Titre abrégé: Ann Gastroenterol Surg
Pays: Japan
ID NLM: 101718062
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Jul 2022
Jul 2022
Historique:
received:
18
11
2021
revised:
20
12
2021
accepted:
08
01
2022
entrez:
18
7
2022
pubmed:
19
7
2022
medline:
19
7
2022
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
The recurrence of bile duct stones is a long-term outcome for patients undergoing laparoscopic common bile duct exploration (LCBDE) that is worthy of attention. This study aimed to investigate long-term risk factors for stones recurrence after LCBDE and develop a nomogram for predicting the risk. The clinical data on consecutive patients with bile duct stones undergoing LCBDE at Shanghai Tenth People's Hospital between January 2014 and February 2019 with a follow-up period longer than 2 years were reviewed. Independent risk factors of stones recurrence identified by the Cox regression model were used to develop a nomogram in predicting stones recurrence after LCBDE. Eight hundred and twenty-two patients were eventually included in this study. Of these patients, 42 (5.11%) developed stones recurrence. The cumulative incidences of stones recurrence at 1, 3, and 5 years after LCBDE were 1.34%, 4.36%, and 7.14%, respectively. Independent risk factors of stones recurrence were identified to be age (HR = 1.04, 95% CI = 1.02-1.07), T-tube drainage (HR = 3.28, 95% CI = 1.23-8.72), fatty liver (HR = 2.69, 95% CI = 1.39-5.20), urinary calculus (HR = 4.68, 95% CI = 2.29-9.56), post-cholecystectomy (HR = 5.21, 95% CI = 2.39-11.33), and post-ERCP + EST (HR = 2.87, 95% CI = 1.18-6.96). By these factors, a developed nomogram showed a C-index of 0.770 to predict stones recurrence. The nomogram, based on identified risk factors, showed good accuracy for predicting stones recurrence, which is valuable to guide these patients' follow-up and prevention.
Sections du résumé
Background
UNASSIGNED
The recurrence of bile duct stones is a long-term outcome for patients undergoing laparoscopic common bile duct exploration (LCBDE) that is worthy of attention. This study aimed to investigate long-term risk factors for stones recurrence after LCBDE and develop a nomogram for predicting the risk.
Methods
UNASSIGNED
The clinical data on consecutive patients with bile duct stones undergoing LCBDE at Shanghai Tenth People's Hospital between January 2014 and February 2019 with a follow-up period longer than 2 years were reviewed. Independent risk factors of stones recurrence identified by the Cox regression model were used to develop a nomogram in predicting stones recurrence after LCBDE.
Results
UNASSIGNED
Eight hundred and twenty-two patients were eventually included in this study. Of these patients, 42 (5.11%) developed stones recurrence. The cumulative incidences of stones recurrence at 1, 3, and 5 years after LCBDE were 1.34%, 4.36%, and 7.14%, respectively. Independent risk factors of stones recurrence were identified to be age (HR = 1.04, 95% CI = 1.02-1.07), T-tube drainage (HR = 3.28, 95% CI = 1.23-8.72), fatty liver (HR = 2.69, 95% CI = 1.39-5.20), urinary calculus (HR = 4.68, 95% CI = 2.29-9.56), post-cholecystectomy (HR = 5.21, 95% CI = 2.39-11.33), and post-ERCP + EST (HR = 2.87, 95% CI = 1.18-6.96). By these factors, a developed nomogram showed a C-index of 0.770 to predict stones recurrence.
Conclusions
UNASSIGNED
The nomogram, based on identified risk factors, showed good accuracy for predicting stones recurrence, which is valuable to guide these patients' follow-up and prevention.
Identifiants
pubmed: 35847430
doi: 10.1002/ags3.12550
pii: AGS312550
pmc: PMC9271022
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Pagination
543-554Informations de copyright
© 2022 The Authors. Annals of Gastroenterological Surgery published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of The Japanese Society of Gastroenterological Surgery.
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