Results of the Cologne Corona surveillance (CoCoS) study - a prospective population-based cohort study: incidence data and potential underestimation of new SARS-CoV-2 adult infections by health authorities.
COVID-19
Coronavirus
Incidence
Pandemic
Surveillance
Underestimation
Journal
BMC public health
ISSN: 1471-2458
Titre abrégé: BMC Public Health
Pays: England
ID NLM: 100968562
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
19 07 2022
19 07 2022
Historique:
received:
22
11
2021
accepted:
28
06
2022
entrez:
19
7
2022
pubmed:
20
7
2022
medline:
22
7
2022
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Current incidence estimates of SARS-CoV-2 in Germany rely to a large extent on case notifications. However, the large number of mild or asymptomatic infections is likely to result in underestimation. Population-based studies can provide valid estimates of the SARS-CoV-2 incidence and thus support health authorities to monitor the epidemiological situation and to initiate, maintain, strengthen or relax effective countermeasures. This study was conducted in Cologne, Germany. Six-thousand randomly drawn Cologne residents, 18 years of age or older, were contacted by mail in March 2021. Study envelopes contained a kit for self-administered saliva sample and access details to a questionnaire on sociodemographic characteristics, previous positive SARS-CoV-2 RT-qPCR and completed COVID-19 vaccinations. Participants were again invited for a second round in June 2021, while those who declined participation were replaced by additional randomly drawn Cologne residents in order to reach a total of 6000 potential participants again. The saliva samples were sent to the laboratory by mail and tested for SARS-CoV-2 using RT-qPCR. The incidence estimates were adjusted for sensitivity and specificity of the test procedure and compared with the official numbers of new SARS-CoV-2 cases in the adult Cologne population. The first surveillance round in March 2021 (response rate: 34.08%, N = 2045) showed a SARS-CoV-2 seven-day incidence of 85 cases per 100,000 adult Cologne residents (95% CI: 9 to 319). In the same period, the officially registered cases were 125 per 100,000. The second surveillance round in June 2021 (response rate: 36.53%, N = 2192) showed a seven-day incidence of 27 per 100,000 adult Cologne residents (95% CI: 1 to 142), while the official figures for newly registered SARS-CoV-2 cases in the same period were 15 per 100,000. The incidence estimates do not indicate relevant underestimation of new SARS-CoV-2 infections based on case notification. Regular use of the surveillance method developed here may nevertheless complement the efforts of the health authorities to assess the epidemiological situation. DRKS.de, German Clinical Trials Register (DRKS), Identifier: DRKS00024046 , Registered on 25 February 2021.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
Current incidence estimates of SARS-CoV-2 in Germany rely to a large extent on case notifications. However, the large number of mild or asymptomatic infections is likely to result in underestimation. Population-based studies can provide valid estimates of the SARS-CoV-2 incidence and thus support health authorities to monitor the epidemiological situation and to initiate, maintain, strengthen or relax effective countermeasures.
METHODS
This study was conducted in Cologne, Germany. Six-thousand randomly drawn Cologne residents, 18 years of age or older, were contacted by mail in March 2021. Study envelopes contained a kit for self-administered saliva sample and access details to a questionnaire on sociodemographic characteristics, previous positive SARS-CoV-2 RT-qPCR and completed COVID-19 vaccinations. Participants were again invited for a second round in June 2021, while those who declined participation were replaced by additional randomly drawn Cologne residents in order to reach a total of 6000 potential participants again. The saliva samples were sent to the laboratory by mail and tested for SARS-CoV-2 using RT-qPCR. The incidence estimates were adjusted for sensitivity and specificity of the test procedure and compared with the official numbers of new SARS-CoV-2 cases in the adult Cologne population.
RESULTS
The first surveillance round in March 2021 (response rate: 34.08%, N = 2045) showed a SARS-CoV-2 seven-day incidence of 85 cases per 100,000 adult Cologne residents (95% CI: 9 to 319). In the same period, the officially registered cases were 125 per 100,000. The second surveillance round in June 2021 (response rate: 36.53%, N = 2192) showed a seven-day incidence of 27 per 100,000 adult Cologne residents (95% CI: 1 to 142), while the official figures for newly registered SARS-CoV-2 cases in the same period were 15 per 100,000.
CONCLUSIONS
The incidence estimates do not indicate relevant underestimation of new SARS-CoV-2 infections based on case notification. Regular use of the surveillance method developed here may nevertheless complement the efforts of the health authorities to assess the epidemiological situation.
TRIAL REGISTRATION
DRKS.de, German Clinical Trials Register (DRKS), Identifier: DRKS00024046 , Registered on 25 February 2021.
Identifiants
pubmed: 35854283
doi: 10.1186/s12889-022-13745-1
pii: 10.1186/s12889-022-13745-1
pmc: PMC9294849
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
1379Informations de copyright
© 2022. The Author(s).
Références
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2021 Mar 30;18(7):
pubmed: 33808249
Sci Rep. 2021 Jul 6;11(1):13903
pubmed: 34230530
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2021 Aug 24;118(34):
pubmed: 34376550
BMC Med Res Methodol. 2006 Feb 23;6:5
pubmed: 16504090
Am J Epidemiol. 2021 Jan 4;190(1):109-115
pubmed: 32803245
JAMA Netw Open. 2021 Oct 1;4(10):e2131137
pubmed: 34698850
JAMA Intern Med. 2021 Mar 1;181(3):353-360
pubmed: 33449069
PLoS Comput Biol. 2021 Feb 11;17(2):e1008559
pubmed: 33571188
J Infect. 2020 Dec;81(6):847-856
pubmed: 33049331
Euro Surveill. 2020 Mar;25(10):
pubmed: 32183930
Bundesgesundheitsblatt Gesundheitsforschung Gesundheitsschutz. 2013 May;56(5-6):620-30
pubmed: 23703478
PLoS One. 2021 Dec 1;16(12):e0260230
pubmed: 34851986
J Oral Microbiol. 2021 Apr 30;13(1):1920226
pubmed: 33986939
EClinicalMedicine. 2021 Sep;39:101082
pubmed: 34458708
BMC Public Health. 2021 Jul 2;21(1):1295
pubmed: 34215236
Nat Med. 2021 May;27(5):790-792
pubmed: 33782619