Applications of conceptual models from lifecourse epidemiology in ecology and evolutionary biology.

In ecology and evolutionary biology (EEB), the study of developmental plasticity seeks to understand ontogenetic processes underlying the phenotypes upon which natural selection acts. A central challenge to this inquiry is ascertaining a causal effect of the exposure on the manifestation of later-life phenotype due to the time elapsed between the two events. The exposure is a potential cause of the outcome-i.e. an environmental stimulus or experience. The later phenotype might be a behaviour, physiological condition, morphology or life-history trait. The latency period between the exposure and outcome complicates causal inference due to the inevitable occurrence of additional events that may affect the relationship of interest. Here, we describe six distinct but non-mutually exclusive conceptual models from the field of lifecourse epidemiology and discuss their applications to EEB research. The models include Critical Period with No Later Modifiers, Critical Period with Later Modifiers, Accumulation of Risk with Independent Risk Exposures, Accumulation of Risk with Risk Clustering, Accumulation of Risk with Chains of Risk and Accumulation of Risk with Trigger Effect. These models, which have been widely used to test causal hypotheses regarding the early origins of adult-onset disease in humans, are directly relevant to research on developmental plasticity in EEB.