PREDICT underestimates survival of patients with HER2-positive early-stage breast cancer.
Journal
NPJ breast cancer
ISSN: 2374-4677
Titre abrégé: NPJ Breast Cancer
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 101674891
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
20 Jul 2022
20 Jul 2022
Historique:
received:
19
01
2022
accepted:
01
07
2022
entrez:
20
7
2022
pubmed:
21
7
2022
medline:
21
7
2022
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
The prognostic performance of PREDICT in patients with HER2-positive early breast cancer (EBC) treated in the modern era with effective chemotherapy and anti-HER2 targeted therapies is unclear. Therefore, we investigated its prognostic performance using data extracted from ALTTO, a phase III trial evaluating adjuvant lapatinib ± trastuzumab vs. trastuzumab alone in patients with HER2-positive EBC. Our analysis included 2794 patients. After a median follow-up of 6.0 years (IQR, 5.8-6.7), 182 deaths were observed. Overall, PREDICT underestimated 5-year OS by 6.7% (95% CI, 5.8-7.6): observed 5-year OS was 94.7% vs. predicted 88.0%. The underestimation was consistent across all subgroups, including those according to the type of anti HER2-therapy. The highest absolute differences were observed for patients with hormone receptor negative-disease, nodal involvement, and large tumor size (13.0%, 15.8%, and 15.3%, respectively). AUC under the ROC curve was 73.7% (95% CI 69.7-77.8) in the overall population, ranging between 61.7% and 77.7% across the analyzed subgroups. In conclusion, our analysis showed that PREDICT highly underestimated OS in HER2-positive EBC. Hence, it should be used with caution to give prognostic estimation to HER2-positive EBC patients treated in the modern era with effective chemotherapy and anti-HER2 targeted therapies.
Identifiants
pubmed: 35859079
doi: 10.1038/s41523-022-00452-8
pii: 10.1038/s41523-022-00452-8
pmc: PMC9300724
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Pagination
87Informations de copyright
© 2022. The Author(s).
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