An epidemic model for SARS-CoV-2 with self-adaptive containment measures.
Journal
PloS one
ISSN: 1932-6203
Titre abrégé: PLoS One
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 101285081
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
2022
2022
Historique:
received:
03
03
2022
accepted:
12
07
2022
entrez:
25
7
2022
pubmed:
26
7
2022
medline:
28
7
2022
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
During the COVID-19 pandemic, several countries have resorted to self-adaptive mechanisms that tailor non-pharmaceutical interventions to local epidemiological and health care indicators. These mechanisms reinforce the mutual influence between containment measures and the evolution of the epidemic. To account for such interplay, we develop an epidemiological model that embeds an algorithm mimicking the self-adaptive policy mechanism effective in Italy between November 2020 and March 2022. This extension is key to tracking the historical evolution of health outcomes and restrictions in Italy. Focusing on the epidemic wave that started in mid-2021 after the diffusion of Delta, we compare the functioning of alternative mechanisms to show how the policy framework may affect the trade-off between health outcomes and the restrictiveness of mitigation measures. Mechanisms based on the reproduction number are generally highly responsive to early signs of a surging wave but entail severe restrictions. The emerging trade-off varies considerably depending on specific conditions (e.g., vaccination coverage), with less-reactive mechanisms (e.g., those based on occupancy rates) becoming more appealing in favorable contexts.
Identifiants
pubmed: 35877667
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0272009
pii: PONE-D-22-06405
pmc: PMC9312378
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
e0272009Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
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