Monitoring Variables Influence on Random Forest Models to Forecast Injuries in Short-Track Speed Skating.

Injuries limit the athletes' ability to participate fully in their training and competitive process. They are detrimental to performance, affecting the athletes psychologically while limiting physiological adaptations and long-term development. This study aims to present a framework for developing random forest classifier models, forecasting injuries in the upcoming 1 to 7 days, to assist the performance support staff in reducing injuries and maximizing performance within the Canadian National Female Short-Track Speed Skating Program. Forty different variables monitored daily over two seasons (2018-2019 and 2019-2020) were used to develop two sets of forecasting models. One includes only training load variables (TL), and a second (ALL) combines a wide array of monitored variables (neuromuscular function, heart rate variability, training load, psychological wellbeing, past injury type, and location). The sensitivity (ALL: 0.35 ± 0.19, TL: 0.23 ± 0.03), specificity (ALL: 0.81 ± 0.05, TL: 0.74 ± 0.03) and Matthews Correlation Coefficients (MCC) (ALL: 0.13 ± 0.05, TL: -0.02 ± 0.02) were computed. Paired

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The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.