Replication of a predictive model for youth ADHD in an independent sample from a developing country.
ADHD
family history
genetics
prediction
prematurity
Journal
Journal of child psychology and psychiatry, and allied disciplines
ISSN: 1469-7610
Titre abrégé: J Child Psychol Psychiatry
Pays: England
ID NLM: 0375361
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
01 2023
01 2023
Historique:
accepted:
21
06
2022
pubmed:
13
8
2022
medline:
17
12
2022
entrez:
12
8
2022
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Very few predictive models in Psychiatry had their performance validated in independent external samples. A previously developed multivariable demographic model for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) accurately predicted young adulthood ADHD using clinical and demographical information collected in childhood in three samples from developed countries, but failed to replicate its performance in a sample from a developing country. Furthermore, consolidated risk factors for ADHD were not included among its predictors. Participants were 1905 children and adolescents from a community-based sample and followed from ages 6 to 14 years at baseline to ages 14 to 23 years (mean age 18) at follow-up. We applied the intercept and weights of the original model to the data, calculating the predicted probability of each participant according to the set of predictors collected in childhood, and compared the estimates with the actual outcome (ADHD) collected during adolescence and young adulthood. We explored the performance of the original model, and of models including novel predictors (prematurity, family history of ADHD, and polygenic risk score for ADHD). The observed area under the curve of the original model was .76 (95% Confidence Interval .70 to .82). The multivariable demographical model outperformed single variable models using only prematurity, family history, or the ADHD PRS. Adding either of these variables, or all at once, did not improve the performance of the original demographical model. Our findings suggest that the originally developed ADHD predictive model is suitable for use in different settings for clinical and research purposes.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
Very few predictive models in Psychiatry had their performance validated in independent external samples. A previously developed multivariable demographic model for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) accurately predicted young adulthood ADHD using clinical and demographical information collected in childhood in three samples from developed countries, but failed to replicate its performance in a sample from a developing country. Furthermore, consolidated risk factors for ADHD were not included among its predictors.
METHODS
Participants were 1905 children and adolescents from a community-based sample and followed from ages 6 to 14 years at baseline to ages 14 to 23 years (mean age 18) at follow-up. We applied the intercept and weights of the original model to the data, calculating the predicted probability of each participant according to the set of predictors collected in childhood, and compared the estimates with the actual outcome (ADHD) collected during adolescence and young adulthood. We explored the performance of the original model, and of models including novel predictors (prematurity, family history of ADHD, and polygenic risk score for ADHD).
RESULTS
The observed area under the curve of the original model was .76 (95% Confidence Interval .70 to .82). The multivariable demographical model outperformed single variable models using only prematurity, family history, or the ADHD PRS. Adding either of these variables, or all at once, did not improve the performance of the original demographical model.
CONCLUSIONS
Our findings suggest that the originally developed ADHD predictive model is suitable for use in different settings for clinical and research purposes.
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
167-174Subventions
Organisme : NIMH NIH HHS
ID : MH120482-01
Pays : United States
Informations de copyright
© 2022 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.
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