Measuring, Modeling, and Forecasting the Mental Wealth of Nations.

The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed the deep links and fragility of economic, health and social systems. Discussions of reconstruction include renewed interest in moving beyond GDP and recognizing "human capital", "brain capital", "mental capital", and "wellbeing" as assets fundamental to economic reimagining, productivity, and prosperity. This paper describes how the conceptualization of Mental Wealth provides an important framing for measuring and shaping social and economic renewal to underpin healthy, productive, resilient, and thriving communities. We propose a transdisciplinary application of systems modeling to forecast a nation's Mental Wealth and understand the extent to which policy-mediated changes in economic, social, and health sectors could enhance collective mental health and wellbeing, social cohesion, and national prosperity. Specifically, simulation will allow comparison of the projected impacts of a range of cross-sector strategies (education sector, mental health system, labor market, and macroeconomic reforms) on GDP and national Mental Wealth, and provide decision support capability for future investments and actions to foster Mental Wealth. Finally, this paper introduces the Mental Wealth Initiative that is harnessing complex systems science to examine the interrelationships between social, commercial, and structural determinants of mental health and wellbeing, and working to empirically challenge the notion that fostering universal social prosperity is at odds with economic and commercial interests.

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Copyright © 2022 Occhipinti, Buchanan, Skinner, Song, Tran, Rosenberg, Fels, Doraiswamy, Meier, Prodan and Hickie.

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JO is Co-Director of the Mental Wealth Initiative and Head of Systems Modelling, Simulation and Data Science at the University of Sydney's Brain and Mind Centre. She holds a non-salaried position as Managing Director of Computer Simulation and Advanced Research Technologies (CSART), a registered charity. She also serves on the World Economic Forum's Global Future Council on Mental Health. JB is Professor in the Discipline of Business Information Systems in the University of Sydney Business School. He is Co-Director of the Mental Wealth Initiative. He is also on the advisory board (voluntary) for two non-government organizations: (i) the People Development Council of Dairy Australia (the peak organization for dairy farmers and processes in Australia), and (ii) the Centre for Future Work. AF is Chair of Mind Australia (an NGO) and a Board Member of the Haven Foundation (an NGO). PD is Co-Chair of the World Economic Forum's Global Future Council on Mental Health and has received travel support from the World Economic Forum. He serves on the boards of Live Love Laugh Foundation and Goldie Hawn Foundation which work to enhance mental health. He has received the following: research grants from the NIH, DOD, Eli Lilly, Avanir, Avid, Cure Alzheimer's Fund, Karen L Wrenn Trust and Steve Aoki Foundation; advisory fees from Vitakey, Lumos Labs, Otsuka, Apollo, Transposon, Sermo, and Neuroglee; stock in Evidation Health and UMethod (whose products are not discussed here). His also co-inventor, through Duke, of patents for diagnosis or treatment of various disorders. AP holds a non-salaried position as an Independent Director of Computer Simulation and Advanced Research Technologies Ltd. (CSART), a registered charity. IH serves on the World Economic Forum's Global Future Council on Mental Health. He was an inaugural Commissioner on Australia's National Mental Health Commission (2012–18). He is Co-Director, Health and Policy at the Brain and Mind Centre (BMC), University of Sydney, Australia. The BMC operates an early-intervention youth services at Camperdown under contract to headspace. He is also the Chief Scientific Advisor to, and a 5% equity shareholder in, InnoWell Pty Ltd. InnoWell was formed by the University of Sydney (45% equity) and PwC (Australia; 45% equity) to deliver the $30M Australian Government-funded Project Synergy (2017–20; a 3-year program for the transformation of mental health services) and to lead transformation of mental health services internationally through the use of innovative technologies. The remaining authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.