Development and validation of a nomogram to predict kidney survival at baseline in patients with C3 glomerulopathy.
C3 glomerulopathy
calibration
discrimination
kidney failure
nomogram
Journal
Clinical kidney journal
ISSN: 2048-8505
Titre abrégé: Clin Kidney J
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101579321
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Sep 2022
Sep 2022
Historique:
received:
01
02
2022
entrez:
25
8
2022
pubmed:
26
8
2022
medline:
26
8
2022
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
C3 glomerulopathy is a rare and heterogeneous complement-driven disease. It is often challenging to accurately predict in clinical practice the individual kidney prognosis at baseline. We herein sought to develop and validate a prognostic nomogram to predict long-term kidney survival. We conducted a retrospective, multicenter observational cohort study in 35 nephrology departments belonging to the Spanish Group for the Study of Glomerular Diseases. The dataset was randomly divided into a training group ( The study group comprised 115 patients, of whom 46 (40%) reached kidney failure in a median follow-up of 49 months (range 24-112). No significant differences were observed in baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), proteinuria or total chronicity score of kidney biopsies, between patients in the training versus those in the validation set. The selected variables by LASSO were eGFR, proteinuria and total chronicity score. Based on a Cox model, a nomogram was developed for the prediction of kidney survival at 1, 2, 5 and 10 years from diagnosis. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.860 (95% confidence interval 0.834-0.887) and calibration plots showed optimal agreement between predicted and observed outcomes. We constructed and validated a practical nomogram with good discrimination and calibration to predict the risk of kidney failure in C3 glomerulopathy patients at 1, 2, 5 and 10 years.
Sections du résumé
Background
UNASSIGNED
C3 glomerulopathy is a rare and heterogeneous complement-driven disease. It is often challenging to accurately predict in clinical practice the individual kidney prognosis at baseline. We herein sought to develop and validate a prognostic nomogram to predict long-term kidney survival.
Methods
UNASSIGNED
We conducted a retrospective, multicenter observational cohort study in 35 nephrology departments belonging to the Spanish Group for the Study of Glomerular Diseases. The dataset was randomly divided into a training group (
Results
UNASSIGNED
The study group comprised 115 patients, of whom 46 (40%) reached kidney failure in a median follow-up of 49 months (range 24-112). No significant differences were observed in baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), proteinuria or total chronicity score of kidney biopsies, between patients in the training versus those in the validation set. The selected variables by LASSO were eGFR, proteinuria and total chronicity score. Based on a Cox model, a nomogram was developed for the prediction of kidney survival at 1, 2, 5 and 10 years from diagnosis. The C-index of the nomogram was 0.860 (95% confidence interval 0.834-0.887) and calibration plots showed optimal agreement between predicted and observed outcomes.
Conclusions
UNASSIGNED
We constructed and validated a practical nomogram with good discrimination and calibration to predict the risk of kidney failure in C3 glomerulopathy patients at 1, 2, 5 and 10 years.
Identifiants
pubmed: 36003665
doi: 10.1093/ckj/sfac108
pii: sfac108
pmc: PMC9394716
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Pagination
1737-1746Informations de copyright
© The Author(s) 2022. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the ERA.
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