Development and validation of safety and efficacy-associated risk calculator for hepatocellular carcinoma in the elderly after resection (SEARCHER): A multi-institutional observational study.
Calculator
Elderly
Hepatectomy
Hepatocellular carcinoma
Morbidity
Prediction
Survival
Journal
International journal of surgery (London, England)
ISSN: 1743-9159
Titre abrégé: Int J Surg
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 101228232
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Oct 2022
Oct 2022
Historique:
received:
28
05
2022
revised:
12
07
2022
accepted:
11
08
2022
pubmed:
28
8
2022
medline:
25
10
2022
entrez:
27
8
2022
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Increased life expectancy and improved perioperative management have resulted in increased utilization of hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among elderly patients. However, individualized model for predicting the surgical safety and efficacy is lacking. The present study aimed to develop a safety and efficacy-associated risk calculator for HCC in the elderly after resection (SEARCHER). From an international multicenter database, elderly patients who underwent curative-intent hepatectomy for HCC were stratified by patient age: 65-69 years, 70-74 years, 75-79 years, and ≥80 years. Short- and long-term outcomes among the 4 groups were compared. Univariate and multivariate analyses of risk factors of postoperative major morbidity, cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) were performed in the training cohort. A nomogram-based online calculator was then constructed and validated in the validation cohort. With increasing age, the risk of postoperative major morbidity and worse OS increased (P = 0.001 and 0.020), but not postoperative mortality and CSS (P = 0.577 and 0.890) among patients across the 4 groups. Based on three nomograms to predict major morbidity, CSS and OS, the SEARCHER model was constructed and made available at https://elderlyhcc.shinyapps.io/SEARCHER. The model demonstrated excellent calibration and optimal performance in both the training and validation cohorts, and performed better than the several commonly-used conventional scoring and staging systems of HCC. With higher potential postoperative major morbidity and worse OS as patients age, the decision of whether to perform a hepatectomy for HCC needs to be comprehensively considered in the elderly. The proposed SEARCHER model demonstrated good performance to individually predict safety and efficacy of hepatectomy in elderly patients with HCC.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
BACKGROUND
Increased life expectancy and improved perioperative management have resulted in increased utilization of hepatectomy for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) among elderly patients. However, individualized model for predicting the surgical safety and efficacy is lacking. The present study aimed to develop a safety and efficacy-associated risk calculator for HCC in the elderly after resection (SEARCHER).
METHODS
METHODS
From an international multicenter database, elderly patients who underwent curative-intent hepatectomy for HCC were stratified by patient age: 65-69 years, 70-74 years, 75-79 years, and ≥80 years. Short- and long-term outcomes among the 4 groups were compared. Univariate and multivariate analyses of risk factors of postoperative major morbidity, cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) were performed in the training cohort. A nomogram-based online calculator was then constructed and validated in the validation cohort.
RESULTS
RESULTS
With increasing age, the risk of postoperative major morbidity and worse OS increased (P = 0.001 and 0.020), but not postoperative mortality and CSS (P = 0.577 and 0.890) among patients across the 4 groups. Based on three nomograms to predict major morbidity, CSS and OS, the SEARCHER model was constructed and made available at https://elderlyhcc.shinyapps.io/SEARCHER. The model demonstrated excellent calibration and optimal performance in both the training and validation cohorts, and performed better than the several commonly-used conventional scoring and staging systems of HCC.
CONCLUSIONS
CONCLUSIONS
With higher potential postoperative major morbidity and worse OS as patients age, the decision of whether to perform a hepatectomy for HCC needs to be comprehensively considered in the elderly. The proposed SEARCHER model demonstrated good performance to individually predict safety and efficacy of hepatectomy in elderly patients with HCC.
Identifiants
pubmed: 36030039
pii: S1743-9191(22)00619-7
doi: 10.1016/j.ijsu.2022.106842
pii:
doi:
Types de publication
Multicenter Study
Observational Study
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
106842Commentaires et corrections
Type : CommentIn
Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2022 IJS Publishing Group Ltd. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
Declaration of competing interest None reported.