Demographic consequences of changes in environmental periodicity.
fire regimes
matrix population model
perturbation
population viability analysis
seasonality
vital-rate periodicity
Journal
Ecology
ISSN: 1939-9170
Titre abrégé: Ecology
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 0043541
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
03 2023
03 2023
Historique:
revised:
27
07
2022
received:
20
08
2021
accepted:
04
08
2022
pubmed:
9
10
2022
medline:
4
3
2023
entrez:
8
10
2022
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
The fate of natural populations is mediated by complex interactions among vital rates, which can vary within and among years. Although the effects of random, among-year variation in vital rates have been studied extensively, relatively little is known about how periodic, nonrandom variation in vital rates affects populations. This knowledge gap is potentially alarming as global environmental change is projected to alter common periodic variations, such as seasonality. We investigated the effects of changes in vital-rate periodicity on populations of three species representing different forms of adaptation to periodic environments: the yellow-bellied marmot (Marmota flaviventer), adapted to strong seasonality in snowfall; the meerkat (Suricata suricatta), adapted to inter-annual stochasticity as well as seasonal patterns in rainfall; and the dewy pine (Drosophyllum lusitanicum), adapted to fire regimes and periodic post-fire habitat succession. To assess how changes in periodicity affect population growth, we parameterized periodic matrix population models and projected population dynamics under different scenarios of perturbations in the strength of vital-rate periodicity. We assessed the effects of such perturbations on various metrics describing population dynamics, including the stochastic growth rate, log λ
Banques de données
Dryad
['10.5061/dryad.hhmgqnkkc']
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
e3894Informations de copyright
© 2022 The Ecological Society of America.
Références
Aberg, P. 1992. “Size-Based Demography of the Seaweed Ascophyllum nodosum in Stochastic Environments.” Ecology 73(4): 1488-501. https://doi.org/10.2307/1940692.
Albon, S. D., R. J. Irvine, O. Halvorsen, R. Langvatn, L. E. Loe, E. Ropstad, V. Veiberg, et al. 2016. “Contrasting Effects of Summer and Winter Warming on Body Mass Explain Population Dynamics in a Food-Limited Arctic Herbivore.” Global Change Biology 23(4): 1374-89. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13435.
Altwegg, R., and M. D. Anderson. 2009. “Rainfall in Arid Zones: Possible Effects of Climate Change on the Population Ecology of Blue Cranes.” Functional Ecology 23(5): 1014-21. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2435.2009.01563.x.
Armitage, K. B. 1973. “Population Changes and Social Behavior Following Colonization by the Yellow-Bellied Marmot.” Journal of Mammalogy 54(4): 842-54. https://doi.org/10.2307/1379079.
Armitage, K. B. 1991. “Social and Population Dynamics of Yellow-Bellied Marmots: Results from Long-Term Research.” Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 22: 379-407. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.es.22.110191.002115.
Armitage, K. B. 2014. Marmot Biology: Sociality, Individual Fitness, and Population Dynamics. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/cbo9781107284272.
Armitage, K. B. 2017. “Hibernation as a Major Determinant of Life-History Traits in Marmots.” Journal of Mammalogy 98(2): 321-31. https://doi.org/10.1093/jmammal/gyw159.
Armitage, K. B., and J. F. Downhower. 1974. “Demography of Yellow-Bellied Marmot Populations.” Ecology 55(6): 1233-45. https://doi.org/10.2307/1935452.
Armitage, K. B., J. F. Downhower, and G. E. Svendsen. 1976. “Seasonal Changes in Weights of Marmots.” The American Midland Naturalist 96(1): 36-51. https://doi.org/10.2307/2424566.
Armitage, K. B., D. H. Van Vuren, A. Ozgul, and M. K. Oli. 2011. “Proximate Causes of Natal Dispersal in Female Yellow-Bellied Marmots, Marmota flaviventris.” Ecology 92(1): 218-27. https://doi.org/10.1890/10-0109.1.
Baeza, M. J., A. Valdecantos, J. A. Alloza, and V. R. Vallejo. 2007. “Human Disturbance and Environmental Factors as Drivers of Long-Term Post-Fire Regeneration Patterns in Mediterranean Forests.” Journal of Vegetation Science 18(2): 243-52. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1654-1103.2007.tb02535.x.
Barbraud, C., and H. Weimerskirch. 2003. “Climate and Density Shape Population Dynamics of a Marine Top Predator.” Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 270(1529): 2111-6. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2003.2488.
Bartoń, K. 2020. “MuMIn: Multi-Model Inference.” R Package Version 1.43.17. https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=MuMIn.
Bassar, R. D., B. H. Letcher, K. H. Nislow, and A. R. Whiteley. 2016. “Changes in Seasonal Climate Outpace Compensatory Density-Dependence in Eastern Brook Trout.” Global Change Biology 22(2): 577-93. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13135.
Bateman, A. W., T. Coulson, and T. H. Clutton-Brock. 2011. “What Do Simple Models Reveal about the Population Dynamics of a Cooperatively Breeding Species?” Oikos 120(5): 787-94. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0706.2010.18952.x.
Bateman, A. W., A. Ozgul, T. Coulson, and T. H. Clutton-Brock. 2012. “Density Dependence in Group Dynamics of a Highly Social Mongoose, Suricata suricatta.” Journal of Animal Ecology 81(3): 628-39. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2656.2011.01934.x.
Bateman, A. W., A. Ozgul, J. F. Nielsen, T. Coulson, and T. H. Clutton-Brock. 2013. “Social Structure Mediates Environmental Effects on Group Size in an Obligate Cooperative Breeder, Suricata suricatta.” Ecology 94(3): 587-97. https://doi.org/10.1890/11-2122.1.
Bates, D., M. Mächler, B. Bolker, and S. Walker. 2015. “Fitting Linear Mixed-Effects Models Using lme4.” Journal of Statistical Software 67(1): 1-48. https://doi.org/10.18637/jss.v067.i01.
Beissinger, S. R. 1995. “Modeling Extinction in Periodic Environments: Everglades Water Levels and Snail Kite Population Viability.” Ecological Applications 5(3): 618-31. https://doi.org/10.2307/1941971.
Bolker, B., and R Development Core Team. 2020. “bbmle: Tools for General Maximum Likelihood Estimation.” R Package Version 1.0.23.1.” https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=bbmle.
Bonenfant, C., J.-M. Gaillard, T. Coulson, M. Festa-Bianchet, A. Loison, M. Garel, L. E. Loe, et al. 2009. “Empirical Evidence of Density-Dependence in Populations of Large Herbivores.” Advances in Ecological Research 41: 313-57. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0065-2504(09)00405-x.
Boyce, M. S. 1979. “Seasonality and Patterns of Natural Selection for Life Histories.” The American Naturalist 114(4): 569-83. https://doi.org/10.1086/283503.
Boyce, M. S., C. V. Haridas, C. T. Lee, and the NCEAS Stochastic Demography Working Group. 2006. “Demography in an Increasingly Variable World.” Trends in Ecology & Evolution 21(3): 141-8. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2005.11.018.
Brawn, J. D., S. K. Robinson, and F. R. Thompson, III. 2001. “The Role of Disturbance in the Ecology and Conservation of Birds.” Annual Review of Ecology and Systematics 32(1): 251-76. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.ecolsys.32.081501.114031.
Breininger, D. R., T. E. Foster, G. M. Carter, B. W. Duncan, E. D. Stolen, and J. E. Lyon. 2018. “The Effect of Vegetative Type, Edges, Fire History, Rainfall, and Management in Fire-Maintained Habitat.” Ecosphere 9(3): e02120. https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.2120.
Brewer, J. S., M. Paniw, and F. Ojeda. 2021. “Plant Behavior and Coexistence: Stem Elongation of the Carnivorous Subshrub Drosophyllum lusitanicum within Xerophytic Shrub Canopies.” Plant Ecology 222(11): 1197-208. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11258-021-01170-0.
Buettner, U. K., H. T. Davies-Mostert, J. T. du Toit, and M. G. L. Mills. 2007. “Factors Affecting Juvenile Survival in African Wild Dogs (Lycaon pictus) in Kruger National Park, South Africa.” Journal of Zoology 272(1): 10-9. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-7998.2006.00240.x.
Burant, J. B., G. S. Betini, and D. R. Norris. 2019. “Simple Signals Indicate Which Period of the Annual Cycle Drives Declines in Seasonal Populations.” Ecology Letters 22(12): 2141-50. https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.13393.
Burnham, K. P., D. R. Anderson, and K. P. Huyvaert. 2010. “AIC Model Selection and Multimodel Inference in Behavioral Ecology: Some Background, Observations, and Comparisons.” Behavioral Ecology and Sociobiology 65(1): 23-35. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00265-010-1029-6.
Caswell, H. 2001. Matrix Population Models: Construction, Analysis, and Interpretation, Second ed. Sunderland, MA: Sinauer Associates Incorporated.
Caswell, H., and T. N. Kaye. 2001. “Stochastic Demography and Conservation of an Endangered Perennial Plant (Lomatium bradshawii) in a Dynamic Fire Regime.” Advances in Ecological Research 32: 1-51. https://doi.org/10.1016/s0065-2504(01)32010-x.
Clutton-Brock, T. H., P. N. M. Brotherton, R. Smith, G. M. McIlrath, R. Kansky, D. Gaynor, M. J. O'Riain, and J. D. Skinner. 1998. “Infanticide and Expulsion of Females in a Cooperative Mammal.” Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 265(1412): 2291-5. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.1998.0573.
Clutton-Brock, T. H., D. Gaynor, G. M. McIlrath, A. D. C. Maccoll, R. Kansky, P. Chadwick, M. Manser, J. D. Skinner, and P. N. M. Brotherton. 1999. “Predation, Group Size and Mortality in a Cooperative Mongoose, Suricata suricatta.” Journal of Animal Ecology 68(4): 672-83. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2656.1999.00317.x.
Clutton-Brock, T. H., S. J. Hodge, and T. P. Flower. 2008. “Group Size and the Suppression of Subordinate Reproduction in Kalahari Meerkats.” Animal Behaviour 76(3): 689-700. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.anbehav.2008.03.015.
Clutton-Brock, T. H., S. J. Hodge, T. P. Flower, G. F. Spong, and A. J. Young. 2010. “Adaptive Suppression of Subordinate Reproduction in Cooperative Mammals.” The American Naturalist 176(5): 664-73. https://doi.org/10.1086/656492.
Clutton-Brock, T. H., A. Maccoll, P. Chadwick, D. Gaynor, R. Kansky, and J. D. Skinner. 1999. “Reproduction and Survival of Suricates (Suricata suricatta) in the Southern Kalahari.” African Journal of Ecology 37(1): 69-80. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2028.1999.00160.x.
Clutton-Brock, T. H., A. F. Russell, L. L. Sharpe, P. N. M. Brotherton, G. M. McIlrath, S. White, and E. Z. Cameron. 2001. “Effects of Helpers on Juvenile Development and Survival in Meerkats.” Science 293(5539): 2446-9. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1061274.
Compagnoni, A., A. J. Bibian, B. M. Ochocki, H. S. Rogers, E. L. Schultz, M. E. Sneck, B. D. Elderd, et al. 2016. “The Effect of Demographic Correlations on the Stochastic Population Dynamics of Perennial Plants.” Ecological Monographs 86(4): 480-94. https://doi.org/10.1002/ecm.1228.
Conquet, E., A. Ozgul, D. T. Blumstein, K. B. Armitage, M. K. Oli, J. G. A. Martin, T. H. Clutton-Brock, and M. Paniw. 2022a. “Demographic Consequences of Changes in Environmental Periodicity.” Dryad, Dataset. https://doi.org/10.5061/dryad.hhmgqnkkc.
Conquet, E., A. Ozgul, D. T. Blumstein, K. B. Armitage, M. K. Oli, J. G. A. Martin, T. H. Clutton-Brock, and M. Paniw. 2022b. “R Code for Demographic Consequences of Changes in Environmental Periodicity.” Zenodo, Software. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.7078560.
Cordes, L. S., D. T. Blumstein, K. B. Armitage, P. J. CaraDonna, D. Z. Childs, B. D. Gerber, J. G. A. Martin, M. K. Oli, and A. Ozgul. 2020. “Contrasting Effects of Climate Change on Seasonal Survival of a Hibernating Mammal.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 117(30): 18119-26. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1918584117.
Correia, E., and H. Freitas. 2002. “Drosophyllum lusitanicum, an Endangered West Mediterranean Endemic Carnivorous Plant: Threats and its Ability to Control Available Resources.” Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society 140(4): 383-90. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1095-8339.2002.00108.x.
Coulson, T., E. A. Catchpole, S. D. Albon, B. J. T. Morgan, J. M. Pemberton, T. H. Clutton-Brock, M. J. Crawley, and B. T. Grenfell. 2001. “Age, Sex, Density, Winter Weather, and Population Crashes in Soay Sheep.” Science 292(5521): 1528-31. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.292.5521.1528.
Cozzi, G., N. Maag, L. Börger, T. H. Clutton-Brock, and A. Ozgul. 2018. “Socially Informed Dispersal in a Territorial Cooperative Breeder.” Journal of Animal Ecology 87(3): 838-49. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.12795.
Cross, A. T., M. Paniw, F. Ojeda, S. R. Turner, K. W. Dixon, and D. J. Merritt. 2017. “Defining the Role of Fire in Alleviating Seed Dormancy in a Rare Mediterranean Endemic Subshrub.” AoB Plants 9(5): plx036. https://doi.org/10.1093/aobpla/plx036.
Denslow, J. S. 1980. “Patterns of Plant Species Diversity during Succession under Different Disturbance Regimes.” Oecologia 46(1): 18-21. https://doi.org/10.1007/bf00346960.
Dickman, C. R., M. Letnic, and P. S. Mahon. 1999. “Population Dynamics of Two Species of Dragon Lizards in Arid Australia: The Effects of Rainfall.” Oecologia 119(3): 357-66. https://doi.org/10.1007/s004420050796.
Doak, D. F., W. F. Morris, C. Pfister, B. E. Kendall, and E. M. Bruna. 2005. “Correctly Estimating how Environmental Stochasticity Influences Fitness and Population Growth.” The American Naturalist 166(1): E14-21. https://doi.org/10.1086/430642.
Donat, M. G., and L. V. Alexander. 2012. “The Shifting Probability Distribution of Global Daytime and Night-Time Temperatures.” Geophysical Research Letters 39(14): L14707. https://doi.org/10.1029/2012gl052459.
Doolan, S. P., and D. W. Macdonald. 2009. “Breeding and Juvenile Survival among Slender-Tailed Meerkats (Suricata suricatta) in the South-Western Kalahari: Ecological and Social Influences.” Journal of Zoology 242(2): 309-27. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-7998.1997.tb05804.x.
Dubuc, C., S. English, N. Thavarajah, B. Dantzer, S. P. Sharp, H. C. Spence-Jones, D. Gaynor, and T. H. Clutton-Brock. 2017. “Increased Food Availability Raises Eviction Rate in a Cooperative Breeding Mammal.” Biology Letters 13(4): 20160961. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2016.0961.
Edic, M. N., J. G. A. Martin, and D. T. Blumstein. 2020. “Heritable Variation in the Timing of Emergence from Hibernation.” Evolutionary Ecology 34(5): 763-76. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10682-020-10060-2.
English, S., A. W. Bateman, and T. H. Clutton-Brock. 2012. “Lifetime Growth in Wild Meerkats: Incorporating Life History and Environmental Factors into a Standard Growth Model.” Oecologia 169(1): 143-53. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00442-011-2192-9.
Evans, M. E. K., K. E. Holsinger, and E. S. Menges. 2010. “Fire, Vital Rates, and Population Viability: A Hierarchical Bayesian Analysis of the Endangered Florida Scrub Mint.” Ecological Monographs 80(4): 627-49. https://doi.org/10.1890/09-1758.1.
Flockhart, D. T. T., J.-B. Pichancourt, D. R. Norris, and T. G. Martin. 2015. “Unravelling the Annual Cycle in a Migratory Animal: Breeding-Season Habitat Loss Drives Population Declines of Monarch Butterflies.” Journal of Animal Ecology 84(1): 155-65. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.12253.
Franco, M., and J. Silvertown. 2004. “A Comparative Demography of Plants Based upon Elasticities of Vital Rates.” Ecology 85(2): 531-8. https://doi.org/10.1890/02-0651.
Frederiksen, M., F. Daunt, M. P. Harris, and S. Wanless. 2008. “The Demographic Impact of Extreme Events: Stochastic Weather Drives Survival and Population Dynamics in a Long-Lived Seabird.” Journal of Animal Ecology 77(5): 1020-9. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2656.2008.01422.x.
Frick, W. F., J. F. Pollock, A. C. Hicks, K. E. Langwig, D. S. Reynolds, G. G. Turner, C. M. Butchkoski, and T. H. Kunz. 2010. “An Emerging Disease Causes Regional Population Collapse of a Common North American Bat Species.” Science 329(5992): 679-82. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1188594.
Fuhlendorf, S. D., D. M. Engle, J. Kerby, and R. Hamilton. 2009. “Pyric Herbivory: Rewilding Landscapes through the Recoupling of Fire and Grazing.” Conservation Biology 23(3): 588-98. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1523-1739.2008.01139.x.
Galíndez, G., P. Ortega-Baes, A. L. Scopel, and M. J. Hutchings. 2013. “The Dynamics of Three Shrub Species in a Fire-Prone Temperate Savanna: The Interplay between the Seed Bank, Seed Rain and Fire Regime.” Plant Ecology 214(1): 75-86. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11258-012-0147-9.
Gamelon, M., V. Grøtan, A. L. K. Nilsson, S. Engen, J. W. Hurrell, K. Jerstad, A. S. Phillips, et al. 2017. “Interactions between Demography and Environmental Effects Are Important Determinants of Population Dynamics.” Science Advances 3(2): e1602298. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1602298.
Garrido, B., A. Hampe, T. Maranon, and J. Arroyo. 2003. “Regional Differences in Land Use Affect Population Performance of the Threatened Insectivorous Plant Drosophyllum lusitanicum (Droseraceae).” Diversity and Distributions 9(5): 335-50. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1472-4642.2003.00029.x.
Giljohann, K. M., M. A. McCarthy, D. A. Keith, L. T. Kelly, M. G. Tozer, and T. J. Regan. 2017. “Interactions between Rainfall, Fire and Herbivory Drive Resprouter Vital Rates in a Semi-Arid Ecosystem.” Journal of Ecology 105(6): 1562-70. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.12768.
Gómez-González, S., M. Paniw, K. Antunes, and F. Ojeda. 2018. “Heat Shock and Plant Leachates Regulate Seed Germination of the Endangered Carnivorous Plant Drosophyllum lusitanicum.” Web Ecology 18(1): 7-13. https://doi.org/10.5194/we-18-7-2018.
Groenendijk, P., A. Eshete, F. J. Sterck, P. A. Zuidema, and F. Bongers. 2011. “Limitations to Suistainable Frankincense Production: Blocked Regeneration, High Adult Mortality and Declining Populations.” Journal of Applied Ecology 49(1): 164-73. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-2664.2011.02078.x.
Groenewoud, F., and T. H. Clutton-Brock. 2020. “Meerkat Helpers Buffer the Detrimental Effects of Adverse Environmental Conditions on Fecundity, Growth and Survival.” Journal of Animal Ecology 90(3): 641-52. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.13396.
Guimarães, M., D. T. Correa, M. P. Gaiarsa, and M. Kéry. 2020. “Full-Annual Demography and Seasonal Cycles in a Resident Vertebrate.” PeerJ 8: e8658. https://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.8658.
Hansen, B. B., M. Gamelon, S. D. Albon, A. M. Lee, A. Stien, R. J. Irvine, B.-E. Saether, et al. 2019. “More Frequent Extreme Climate Events Stabilize Reindeer Population Dynamics.” Nature Communications 10(1): 1616. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-09332-5.
Heissenberger, S., G. Medeiros de Pinho, J. G. A. Martin, and D. T. Blumstein. 2020. “Age and Location Influence the Costs of Compensatory and Accelerated Growth in a Hibernating Mammal.” Behavioral Ecology 31(3): 826-33. https://doi.org/10.1093/beheco/araa013.
Horvitz, C. C., S. Tuljapurkar, and J. B. Pascarella. 2005. “Plant-Animal Interactions in Random Environments: Habitat-Stage Elasticity, Seed Predators, and Hurricanes.” Ecology 86(12): 3312-22. https://doi.org/10.1890/04-1187.
Hostetler, J. A., T. S. Sillett, and P. P. Marra. 2015. “Full-Annual-Cycle Population Models for Migratory Birds.” The Auk 132(2): 433-49. https://doi.org/10.1642/auk-14-211.1.
Hunter, C. M., H. Caswell, M. C. Runge, E. V. Regehr, S. C. Amstrup, and I. Stirling. 2010. “Climate Change Threatens Polar Bear Populations: A Stochastic Demographic Analysis.” Ecology 91(10): 2883-97. https://doi.org/10.1890/09-1641.1.
Inouye, D. W., B. Barr, K. B. Armitage, and B. D. Inouye. 2000. “Climate Change Is Affecting Altitudinal Migrants and Hibernating Species.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 97(4): 1630-3. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.97.4.1630.
IPCC. 2014. In Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by Core Writing Team, R. K. Pachauri, and L. A. Meyer, 151. Geneva: IPCC.
Jongejans, E., H. De Kroon, S. Tuljapurkar, and K. Shea. 2010. “Plant Populations Track Rather than Buffer Climate Fluctuations.” Ecology Letters 13(6): 736-43. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2010.01470.x.
Kanno, Y., B. H. Letcher, N. P. Hitt, D. A. Boughton, J. E. B. Wofford, and E. F. Zipkin. 2015. “Seasonal Weather Patterns Drive Population Vital Rates and Persistence in a Stream Fish.” Global Change Biology 21(5): 1856-70. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.12837.
Keith, D. A., H. R. Akçakaya, W. Thuiller, G. F. Midgley, R. G. Pearson, S. J. Phillips, H. M. Regan, M. B. Araújo, and T. G. Rebelo. 2008. “Predicting Extinction Risks under Climate Change: Coupling Stochastic Population Models with Dynamic Bioclimatic Habitat Models.” Biology Letters 4(5): 560-3. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2008.0049.
Keith, D. A., B. Dunker, and D. A. Driscoll. 2020. “Dispersal: The Eighth Fire Seasonality Effect on Plants.” Trends in Ecology & Evolution 35(4): 305-7. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2019.12.001.
Kleiven, E. F., J.-A. Henden, R. A. Ims, and N. G. Yoccoz. 2018. “Seasonal Difference in Temporal Transferability of an Ecological Model: Near-Term Predictions of Lemming Outbreak Abundances.” Scientific Reports 8(1): 15252. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-33443-6.
Knowles, J. E., and C. Frederick. 2020. “merTools: Tools for Analyzing Mixed Effect Regression Models.” R Package Version 0.5.2. https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=merTools.
Lebl, K., C. Bieber, P. Adamík, J. Fietz, P. Morris, A. Pilastro, and T. Ruf. 2011. “Survival Rates in a Small Hibernator, the Edible Dormouse: A Comparison across Europe.” Ecography 34(4): 683-92. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0587.2010.06691.x.
Lennartsson, T., and J. G. B. Oostermeijer. 2001. “Demographic Variation and Population Viability in Gentianella campestris: Effects of Grassland Management and Environmental Stochasticity.” Journal of Ecology 89(3): 451-63. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2745.2001.00566.x.
Maag, N. 2019. Mechanisms and Demographic Consequences of Dispersal in the Cooperatively Breeding Meerkat. Dissertation. Switzerland: University of Zurich.
Maldonado-Chaparro, A. A., D. T. Blumstein, K. B. Armitage, and D. Z. Childs. 2018. “Transient LTRE Analysis Reveals the Demographic and Trait-Mediated Processes that Buffer Population Growth.” Ecology Letters 21(11): 1693-703. https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.13148.
Mandle, L., T. Ticktin, and P. A. Zuidema. 2015. “Resilience of Palm Populations to Disturbance Is Determined by Interactive Effects of Fire, Herbivory and Harvest.” Journal of Ecology 103(4): 1032-43. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2745.12420.
Marra, P. P., E. B. Cohen, S. R. Loss, J. E. Rutter, and C. M. Tonra. 2015. “A Call for Full Annual Cycle Research in Animal Ecology.” Biology Letters 11(8): 20150552. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsbl.2015.0552.
McDonald, J. L., M. Franco, S. Townley, T. H. G. Ezard, K. Jelbert, and D. J. Hodgson. 2017. “Divergent Demographic Strategies of Plants in Variable Environments.” Nature Ecology & Evolution 1(2): 29. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-016-0029.
McNutt, J. W., R. Groom, and R. Woodroffe. 2019. “Ambient Temperature Provides an Adaptive Explanation for Seasonal Reproduction in a Tropical Mammal.” Journal of Zoology 309(3): 153-60. https://doi.org/10.1111/jzo.12712.
Menges, E. S., and R. W. Dolan. 1998. “Demographic Viability of Populations of Silene regia in Midwestern Prairies: Relationships with Fire Management, Genetic Variation, Geographic Location, Population Size and Isolation.” Journal of Ecology 86(1): 63-78. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2745.1998.00234.x.
Miller, R. G., R. Tangney, N. J. Enright, J. B. Fontaine, D. J. Merritt, M. K. J. Ooi, K. X. Ruthrof, and B. P. Miller. 2019. “Mechanisms of Fire Seasonality Effects on Plant Populations.” Trends in Ecology & Evolution 34(12): 1104-17. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tree.2019.07.009.
Montero, A. P., D. M. Williams, J. G. A. Martin, and D. T. Blumstein. 2020. “More Social Female Yellow-Bellied Marmots, Marmota flaviventer, Have Enhanced Summer Survival.” Animal Behaviour 160: 113-9. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.anbehav.2019.12.013.
Morris, W. F., C. A. Pfister, S. Tuljapurkar, C. V. Haridas, C. L. Boggs, M. S. Boyce, E. M. Bruna, et al. 2008. “Longevity Can Buffer Plant and Animal Populations against Changing Climatic Variability.” Ecology 89(1): 19-25. https://doi.org/10.1890/07-0774.1.
Morris, W. F., S. Tuljapurkar, C. V. Haridas, E. S. Menges, C. C. Horvitz, and C. A. Pfister. 2006. “Sensitivity of the Population Growth Rate to Demographic Variability within and between Phases of the Disturbance Cycle.” Ecology Letters 9(12): 1331-41. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2006.00988.x.
Ojeda, F., T. Maranon, and J. Arroyo. 1996. “Postfire Regeneration of a Mediterranean Heathland in Southern Spain.” International Journal of Wildland Fire 6(4): 191-8. https://doi.org/10.1071/wf9960191.
Oli, M. K. 2019. “Population Cycles in Voles and Lemmings: State of the Science and Future Directions.” Mammal Review 49(3): 226-39. https://doi.org/10.1111/mam.12156.
Oli, M. K., and K. B. Armitage. 2004. “Yellow-Bellied Marmot Population Dynamics: Demographic Mechanisms of Growth and Decline.” Ecology 85(9): 2446-55. https://doi.org/10.1890/03-0513.
Ozgul, A., A. W. Bateman, S. English, T. Coulson, and T. H. Clutton-Brock. 2014. “Linking Body Mass and Group Dynamics in an Obligate Cooperative Breeder.” Journal of Animal Ecology 83(6): 1357-66. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.12239.
Ozgul, A., D. Z. Childs, M. K. Oli, K. B. Armitage, D. T. Blumstein, L. E. Olson, S. Tuljapurkar, and T. Coulson. 2010. “Coupled Dynamics of Body Mass and Population Growth in Response to Environmental Change.” Nature 466(7305): 482-5. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09210.
Ozgul, A., M. K. Oli, K. B. Armitage, D. T. Blumstein, and D. H. Van Vuren. 2009. “Influence of Local Demography on Asymptotic and Transient Dynamics of a Yellow-Bellied Marmot Metapopulation.” The American Naturalist 173(4): 517-30. https://doi.org/10.1086/597225.
Packer, C., R. Hilborn, A. Mosser, B. Kissui, M. Borner, G. Hopcraft, J. Wilmshurst, S. Mduma, and A. R. E. Sinclair. 2005. “Ecological Change, Group Territoriality, and Population Dynamics in Serengeti Lions.” Science 307(5708): 390-3. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1105122.
Panda, S., J. B. Hogenesch, and S. A. Kay. 2002. “Circadian Rhythms from Flies to Human.” Nature 417(6886): 329-35. https://doi.org/10.1038/417329a.
Paniw, M., D. Z. Childs, K. B. Armitage, D. T. Blumstein, J. G. A. Martin, M. K. Oli, and A. Ozgul. 2020. “Assessing Seasonal Demographic Covariation to Understand Environmental-Change Impacts on a Hibernating Mammal.” Ecology Letters 23(4): 588-97. https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.13459.
Paniw, M., C. Duncan, F. Groenewoud, J. A. Drewe, M. Manser, A. Ozgul, and T. Clutton-Brock. 2022. “Higher Temperature Extremes Exacerbate Negative Disease Effects in a Social Mammal.” Nature Climate Change 12(3): 284-90. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-022-01284-x.
Paniw, M., N. Maag, G. Cozzi, T. H. Clutton-Brock, and A. Ozgul. 2019. “Life History Responses of Meerkats to Seasonal Changes in Extreme Environments.” Science 363(6427): 631-5. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aau5905.
Paniw, M., P. F. Quintana-Ascencio, F. Ojeda, and R. Salguero-Gómez. 2017. “Interacting Livestock and Fire May both Threaten and Increase Viability of a Fire-Adapted Mediterranean Carnivorous Plant.” The Journal of Applied Ecology 54(6): 1884-94. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.12872.
Paniw, M., R. Salguero-Gómez, and F. Ojeda. 2015. “Local-Scale Disturbances Can Benefit an Endangered, Fire-Adapted Plant Species in Western Mediterranean Heathlands in the Absence of Fire.” Biological Conservation 187: 74-81. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2015.04.010.
Paniw, M., R. Salguero-Gómez, and F. Ojeda. 2017. “Transient Facilitation of Resprouting Shrubs in Fire-Prone Habitats.” Journal of Plant Ecology 11(3): 475-83. https://doi.org/10.1093/jpe/rtx019.
Park, J. S. 2019. “Cyclical Environments Drive Variation in Life-History Strategies: A General Theory of Cyclical Phenology.” Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 286(1898): 20190214. https://doi.org/10.1098/rspb.2019.0214.
Pascarella, J. B., and C. C. Horvitz. 1998. “Hurricane Disturbance and the Population Dynamics of a Tropical Understory Shrub: Megamatrix Elasticity Analysis.” Ecology 79(2): 547-63. https://doi.org/10.1890/0012-9658(1998)079[0547:hdatpd]2.0.co;2.
Pausas, J. G., R. A. Bradstock, D. A. Keith, and J. E. Keeley. 2004. “Plant Functional Traits in Relation to Fire in Crown-Fire Ecosystems.” Ecology 85(4): 1085-100. https://doi.org/10.1890/02-4094.
Pausas, J. G., and J. E. Keeley. 2014. “Abrupt Climate-Independent Fire Regime Changes.” Ecosystems 17(6): 1109-20. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-014-9773-5.
Pfister, C. A. 1998. “Patterns of Variance in Stage-Structured Populations: Evolutionary Predictions and Ecological Implications.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 95(1): 213-8. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.95.1.213.
Quintana-Ascencio, P. F., E. S. Menges, and C. W. Weekley. 2003. “A Fire-Explicit Population Viability Analysis of Hyperium cumulicola in Florida Rosemary Scrub.” Conservation Biology 17(2): 433-49. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1523-1739.2003.01431.x.
R Core Team. 2020. R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. Vienna: R foundation for statistical computing. https://www.R-project.org/.
Radchuk, V., R. A. Ims, and H. P. Andreassen. 2016. “From Individuals to Population Cycles: The Role of Extrinsic and Intrinsic Factors in Rodent Populations.” Ecology 97(3): 720-32. https://doi.org/10.1890/15-0756.1.
Reid, J. M., J. M. J. Travis, F. Daunt, S. J. Burthe, S. Wanless, and C. Dytham. 2018. “Population and Evolutionary Dynamics in Spatially Structured Seasonally Varying Environments.” Biological Reviews 93(3): 1578-603. https://doi.org/10.1111/brv.12409.
RStudio Team. 2021. RStudio: Integrated Development Environment for R. Boston, MA: RStudio, PBC. https://www.rstudio.com.
Russell, A. F., T. H. Clutton-Brock, P. N. M. Brotherton, L. L. Sharpe, G. M. Mcilrath, F. D. Dalerum, E. Z. Cameron, and J. A. Barnard. 2002. “Factors Affecting Pup Growth and Survival in Co-operatively Breeding Meerkats Suricata suricatta.” Journal of Animal Ecology 71(4): 700-9. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-2656.2002.00636.x.
Schwartz, O. A., and K. B. Armitage. 2002. “Correlations between Weather Factors and Life-History Traits of Yellow-Bellied Marmots.” In Holarctic Marmots as a Factor of Biodiversity, edited by K. B. Armitage and V. Y. Rumiantsev, 345-51. Moscow: ABF Publishing House.
Schwartz, O. A., and K. B. Armitage. 2005. “Weather Influences on Demography of the Yellow-Bellied Marmot (Marmota flaviventris).” Journal of Zoology 265(1): 73-9. https://doi.org/10.1017/s0952836904006089.
Schwartz, O. A., K. B. Armitage, and D. H. Van Vuren. 1998. “A 32-Year Demography of Yellow-Bellied Marmots (Marmota flaviventris).” Journal of Zoology 246(3): 337-46. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1469-7998.1998.tb00163.x.
Sharp, S. P., and T. H. Clutton-Brock. 2011. “Competition, Breeding Success and Ageing Rates in Female Meerkats.” Journal of Evolutionary Biology 24(8): 1756-62. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1420-9101.2011.02304.x.
Silva, J. F., J. Raventos, H. Caswell, and M. C. Trevisan. 1991. “Population Responses to Fire in a Tropical Savanna Grass Andropogon semiberbis: A Matrix Model Approach.” Journal of Ecology 79(2): 345-55. https://doi.org/10.2307/2260717.
Sinclair, A. R. E., and R. P. Pech. 1996. “Density Dependence, Stochasticity, Compensation and Predator Regulation.” Oikos 75(2): 164-73. https://doi.org/10.2307/3546240.
Sühs, R. B., F. Silva Rosa, J. Silveira, N. Peroni, and E. L. H. Giehl. 2021. “The Influence of Fire and Cattle Grazing on Araucaria Population Structure in Forest-Grassland Mosaics.” Flora 281: 151853. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.flora.2021.151853.
Töpper, J. P., E. Meineri, S. L. Olsen, K. Rydgren, O. Skarpaas, and V. Vandvik. 2018. “The Devil Is in the Detail: Nonadditive and Context-Dependent Plant Population Responses to Increasing Temperature and Precipitation.” Global Change Biology 24(10): 4657-66. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14336.
Trauernicht, C., B. P. Murphy, L. D. Prior, M. J. Lawes, and D. M. J. S. Bowman. 2016. “Human-Imposed, Fine-Grained Patch Burning Explains the Population Stability of a Fire-Sensitive Conifer in a Frequently Burnt Northern Australia Savanna.” Ecosystems 19(5): 896-909. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-016-9973-2.
Trotter, M. V., S. Krishna-Kumar, and S. Tuljapurkar. 2013. “Beyond the Mean: Sensitivities of the Variance of Population Growth.” Methods in Ecology and Evolution 4(3): 290-8. https://doi.org/10.1111/2041-210x.12010.
Tuljapurkar, S. 1990. Population Dynamics in Variable Environments. Berlin: Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-51652-8.
Tuljapurkar, S., and C. V. Haridas. 2006. “Temporal Autocorrelation and Stochastic Population Growth.” Ecology Letters 9(3): 327-37. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1461-0248.2006.00881.x.
Tuljapurkar, S., C. C. Horvitz, and J. B. Pascarella. 2003. “The Many Growth Rates and Elasticities of Populations in Random Environments.” The American Naturalist 162(4): 489-502. https://doi.org/10.1086/378648.
van de Pol, M., Y. Vindenes, B.-E. Saether, S. Engen, B. J. Ens, K. Oosterbeek, and J. M. Tinbergen. 2010. “Effects of Climate Change and Variability on Population Dynamics in a Long-Lived Shorebird.” Ecology 91(4): 1192-204. https://doi.org/10.1890/09-0410.1.
Van Vuren, D. H. 2001. “Predation on Yellow-Bellied Marmots (Marmota flaviventris).” The American Midland Naturalist 145(1): 94-100. https://doi.org/10.1674/0003-0031(2001)145[0094:poybmm]2.0.co;2.
Van Vuren, D. H., and K. B. Armitage. 1991. “Duration of Snow Cover and its Influence on Life-History Variation in Yellow-Bellied Marmots.” Canadian Journal of Zoology 69(7): 1755-8. https://doi.org/10.1139/z91-244.
Varpe, Ø. 2017. “Life History Adaptations to Seasonality.” Integrative and Comparative Biology 57(5): 943-60. https://doi.org/10.1093/icb/icx123.
Viñals-Domingo, A., S. Bertolino, G. López-Iborra, and J. A. Gil-Delgado. 2020. “Seasonal Survival in a Non-hibernating Mediterranean Garden Dormouse Population.” Mammalian Biology 100(6): 581-9. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42991-020-00067-1.
Vøllestad, L. A., and E. M. Olsen. 2008. “Non-additive Effects of Density-Dependent and Density-Independent Factors on Brown Trout Vital Rates.” Oikos 117(11): 1752-60. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0706.2008.16872.x.
Wang, G., J. O. Wolff, S. H. Vessey, N. A. Slade, J. W. Witham, J. F. Merritt, M. L. Hunter, Jr., and S. P. Elias. 2009. “Comparative Population Dynamics of Peromyscus leucopus in North America: Influences of Climate, Food, and Density Dependence.” Population Ecology 51(1): 133-42. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10144-008-0094-4.
Wichmann, M. C., F. Jeltsch, W. R. J. Dean, K. A. Moloney, and C. Wissel. 2003. “Implication of Climate Change for the Persistence of Raptors in Arid Savanna.” Oikos 102(1): 186-202. https://doi.org/10.1034/j.1600-0706.2003.12044.x.
Woodroffe, R., R. Groom, and J. W. McNutt. 2017. “Hot Dogs: High Ambient Temperatures Impact Reproductive Success in a Tropical Carnivore.” Journal of Animal Ecology 86(6): 1329-38. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2656.12719.
Xu, L., R. B. Myneni, F. S. Chapin, III, T. V. Callaghan, J. E. Pinzon, C. J. Tucker, Z. Zhu, et al. 2013. “Temperature and Vegetation Seasonality Diminishment over Northern Lands.” Nature Climate Change 3(6): 581-6. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1836.
Young, A. J., A. A. Carlson, S. L. Monfort, A. F. Russell, N. C. Bennett, and T. H. Clutton-Brock. 2006. “Stress and the Suppression of Subordinate Reproduction in Cooperatively Breeding Meerkats.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 103(32): 12005-10. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0510038103.