External Validation of Mortality Scores among High-Risk COVID-19 Patients: A Romanian Retrospective Study in the First Pandemic Year.
COVID-19
Romania
comorbidities
mortality scores
validation
Journal
Journal of clinical medicine
ISSN: 2077-0383
Titre abrégé: J Clin Med
Pays: Switzerland
ID NLM: 101606588
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
24 Sep 2022
24 Sep 2022
Historique:
received:
05
08
2022
revised:
06
09
2022
accepted:
20
09
2022
entrez:
14
10
2022
pubmed:
15
10
2022
medline:
15
10
2022
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
We aimed to externally validate three prognostic scores for COVID-19: the 4C Mortality Score (4CM Score), the COVID-GRAM Critical Illness Risk Score (COVID-GRAM), and COVIDAnalytics. We evaluated the scores in a retrospective study on adult patients hospitalized with severe/critical COVID-19 (1 March 2020-1 March 2021), in the Teaching Hospital of Infectious Diseases, Cluj-Napoca, Romania. We assessed all the deceased patients matched with two survivors by age, gender, and at least two comorbidities. The areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) were computed for in-hospital mortality. Among 780 severe/critical COVID-19 patients, 178 (22.8%) died. We included 474 patients according to the case definition (158 deceased/316 survivors). The median age was 75 years; diabetes mellitus, malignancies, chronic pulmonary diseases, and chronic kidney and moderate/severe liver diseases were associated with higher risks of death. According to the predefined 4CM Score, the mortality rates were 0% (low), 13% (intermediate), 27% (high), and 61% (very high). The AUROC for the 4CM Score was 0.72 (95% CI: 0.67-0.77) for in-hospital mortality, close to COVID-GRAM, with slightly greater discriminatory ability for COVIDAnalytics: 0.76 (95% CI: 0.71-0.80). All the prognostic scores showed close values compared to their validation cohorts, were fairly accurate in predicting mortality, and can be used to prioritize care and resources.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
BACKGROUND
We aimed to externally validate three prognostic scores for COVID-19: the 4C Mortality Score (4CM Score), the COVID-GRAM Critical Illness Risk Score (COVID-GRAM), and COVIDAnalytics.
METHODS
METHODS
We evaluated the scores in a retrospective study on adult patients hospitalized with severe/critical COVID-19 (1 March 2020-1 March 2021), in the Teaching Hospital of Infectious Diseases, Cluj-Napoca, Romania. We assessed all the deceased patients matched with two survivors by age, gender, and at least two comorbidities. The areas under the receiver-operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) were computed for in-hospital mortality.
RESULTS
RESULTS
Among 780 severe/critical COVID-19 patients, 178 (22.8%) died. We included 474 patients according to the case definition (158 deceased/316 survivors). The median age was 75 years; diabetes mellitus, malignancies, chronic pulmonary diseases, and chronic kidney and moderate/severe liver diseases were associated with higher risks of death. According to the predefined 4CM Score, the mortality rates were 0% (low), 13% (intermediate), 27% (high), and 61% (very high). The AUROC for the 4CM Score was 0.72 (95% CI: 0.67-0.77) for in-hospital mortality, close to COVID-GRAM, with slightly greater discriminatory ability for COVIDAnalytics: 0.76 (95% CI: 0.71-0.80).
CONCLUSION
CONCLUSIONS
All the prognostic scores showed close values compared to their validation cohorts, were fairly accurate in predicting mortality, and can be used to prioritize care and resources.
Identifiants
pubmed: 36233498
pii: jcm11195630
doi: 10.3390/jcm11195630
pmc: PMC9573119
pii:
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
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