Validation study of the JSHBPS nomogram for patients with colorectal liver metastases who underwent hepatic resection in the recent era - a nationwide survey in Japan.
JSHBPS nomogram
beppu score
colorectal liver metastases
modern chemotherapy
validation
Journal
Journal of hepato-biliary-pancreatic sciences
ISSN: 1868-6982
Titre abrégé: J Hepatobiliary Pancreat Sci
Pays: Japan
ID NLM: 101528587
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
May 2023
May 2023
Historique:
revised:
07
09
2022
received:
14
05
2022
accepted:
16
09
2022
medline:
26
5
2023
pubmed:
27
10
2022
entrez:
26
10
2022
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
The Japanese Society of Hepato-Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery (JSHBPS) nomogram was developed to predict disease-free survival in patients with colorectal liver metastases (CRLM) undergoing upfront hepatectomy. However, the utility of the nomogram in patients with resected CRLM remains unknown in the current situation in which treatment strategies are changing with advances in drugs. Patients in the initial nomogram cohort (n = 727) and validation cohort (n = 2225) were divided into the upfront hepatectomy and preoperative chemotherapy groups. The nomogram was validated by measuring calibration and discrimination in the two cohorts. Calibration curves were plotted, and survival probabilities were compared. Finally, to quantify the discrimination power, we estimated the concordance index (C-index). In the upfront hepatectomy group, the C-index was 0.63, the suitable cutoff value of the Beppu score was 7, and adjuvant chemotherapy was significantly effective limited to high-risk patients (Beppu score ≥7). The C-index was 0.56 in the preoperative chemotherapy group. The JSHBPS nomogram remains beneficial for patients undergoing upfront hepatectomy in the recent era but is less effective for patients undergoing hepatectomy after chemotherapy. Patients with a Beppu score ≥7 showed high-risk recurrence, and adjuvant chemotherapy should be recommended for these patients.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
BACKGROUND
The Japanese Society of Hepato-Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery (JSHBPS) nomogram was developed to predict disease-free survival in patients with colorectal liver metastases (CRLM) undergoing upfront hepatectomy. However, the utility of the nomogram in patients with resected CRLM remains unknown in the current situation in which treatment strategies are changing with advances in drugs.
METHODS
METHODS
Patients in the initial nomogram cohort (n = 727) and validation cohort (n = 2225) were divided into the upfront hepatectomy and preoperative chemotherapy groups. The nomogram was validated by measuring calibration and discrimination in the two cohorts. Calibration curves were plotted, and survival probabilities were compared. Finally, to quantify the discrimination power, we estimated the concordance index (C-index).
RESULTS
RESULTS
In the upfront hepatectomy group, the C-index was 0.63, the suitable cutoff value of the Beppu score was 7, and adjuvant chemotherapy was significantly effective limited to high-risk patients (Beppu score ≥7). The C-index was 0.56 in the preoperative chemotherapy group.
CONCLUSIONS
CONCLUSIONS
The JSHBPS nomogram remains beneficial for patients undergoing upfront hepatectomy in the recent era but is less effective for patients undergoing hepatectomy after chemotherapy. Patients with a Beppu score ≥7 showed high-risk recurrence, and adjuvant chemotherapy should be recommended for these patients.
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
591-601Informations de copyright
© 2022 The Authors. Journal of Hepato-Biliary-Pancreatic Sciences published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Japanese Society of Hepato-Biliary-Pancreatic Surgery.
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