Getting the most out of maths: How to coordinate mathematical modelling research to support a pandemic, lessons learnt from three initiatives that were part of the COVID-19 response in the UK.

In March 2020 mathematics became a key part of the scientific advice to the UK government on the pandemic response to COVID-19. Mathematical and statistical modelling provided critical information on the spread of the virus and the potential impact of different interventions. The unprecedented scale of the challenge led the epidemiological modelling community in the UK to be pushed to its limits. At the same time, mathematical modellers across the country were keen to use their knowledge and skills to support the COVID-19 modelling effort. However, this sudden great interest in epidemiological modelling needed to be coordinated to provide much-needed support, and to limit the burden on epidemiological modellers already very stretched for time. In this paper we describe three initiatives set up in the UK in spring 2020 to coordinate the mathematical sciences research community in supporting mathematical modelling of COVID-19. Each initiative had different primary aims and worked to maximise synergies between the various projects. We reflect on the lessons learnt, highlighting the key roles of pre-existing research collaborations and focal centres of coordination in contributing to the success of these initiatives. We conclude with recommendations about important ways in which the scientific research community could be better prepared for future pandemics. This manuscript was submitted as part of a theme issue on "Modelling COVID-19 and Preparedness for Future Pandemics".

Informations de copyright

Copyright © 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts

Declaration of Competing Interest ☒The authors declare the following financial interests/personal relationships which may be considered as potential competing interests: Ciara E. Dangerfield is the senior scientific programme manager for the JUNIPER consortium and is on secondment from her position at Isaac Newton Institute for the mathematical sciences as the development and communications coordinator. I.David Abrahams is previously director of the Isaac Newton Institute (2016-2021), led the working group to develop a prototype for the National Academy of Mathematical Sciences in the UK, co-led the development of a connected centres for knowledge exchange network for the UK paper, co-investigator on the UKRI funded RAMP continuity network grant and is a forum partner for V-KEMS. Dawn Wasley is knowledge exchange coordinator at ICMS and is a forum partner for V-KEMS. Jane Leeks is the manager of the Newton Gateway, co-led the development of a connected centres for knowledge exchange network for the UK paper and is a forum partner for V-KEMS. Clare Merritt is senior scientific knowledge exchange coordinator at the Newton Gateway and is a forum partner for V-KEMS. Maha Kaouri is scientific knowledge exchange coordinate at the Newton Gateway and is a forum partner for V-KEMS. Christie Marr is deputy director at the Isaac Newton Institute for the mathematical sciences. Julia Gog attended SPI-M, SPI-M-O and SAGE meetings, was co-investigator on the UKRI funded RAMP continuity network grant, is co-principle investigator for the JUNIPER consortium and was an organiser of the Infectious Dynamics of Pandemics research programme at the Isaac Newton Institute. Deirdre Hollingsworth attended SPI-M-O meetings, was co-investigator on the UKRI funded RAMP continuity network grant, is a co-investigator for the JUNIPER consortium, leads the Neglected Tropical Diseases modelling consortium and was principle organiser of the Infectious Dynamics of Pandemics Programme at the Isaac Newton Institute. Chris Budd is director of knowledge exchange for Bath Institute for Mathematical Innovation, Director of the Centre for Nonlinear Mechanics, Fellow of Gresham College, Professor of Mathematics at the Royal Institution of Great Britain and is a forum partner for V-KEMS. Matt Butchers previously part of the Knowledge Transfer Network, currently industrial fellow at Bath Institute for Mathematical Innovation, member of the advisory board for the Newton Gateway, author of the connected centre for knowledge exchange paper and is a forum partner for V-KEMS. Alan Champneys is a member of Newton Gateway scientific advisory panel and a forum partner for V-KEMS. Rebecca Hoyle is a member of Newton Gateway scientific advisory panel and a forum partner for V-KEMS. Joanna Jordan is a freelance mathematical sciences knowledge exchange professional, member of the advisory board for the Newton Gateway, is author of the connected centre for knowledge exchange paper and is a forum partner for V-KEMS. Michael E Cates was principle investigator on the UKRI funded RAMP continuity network grant. Valerie Isham was one of the organisers of the Infectious Dynamics of Pandemics programme at the Isaac Newton Institute and was previously chair of the scientific steering committee at the Isaac Newton Institute for the mathematical sciences. INI Professional Services are predominantly supported through an EPSRC grant no. EP/R014604/1. Christine Currie was part of the working group to develop a prototype for the National Academy of Mathematical Sciences in the UK and is a member of Newton Gateway scientific advisory panel. Alain Goriely is Director of the Oxford Centre for Industrial Applied Mathematics, Director of the International Brain and Mechanics Trauma Lab, Fellow of SIAM and the IMA, and co-investigator on the UKRI funded RAMP continuity network grant. Kostas Kavoussanakis is group manager at EPCC at the University of Edinburgh and co-investigator on the UKRI funded RAMP continuity network grant. Philip K Maini was co-investigator on the UKRI funded RAMP continuity network grant. Denis Mollison was an organiser of the Infectious Dynamics of Pandemics Programme at INI. Surajit Ray is a member of Newton Gateway scientific advisory panel. Alex Wakefield is senior policy advisor and programme manager at the Royal Society. Robin Thompson attended SPI-M-O meetings and is a member of the JUNIPER consortium. Jessica Enright is a member of the JUNIPER consortium.