Predictive markers for clinical outcomes in a cohort of diabetic patients hospitalized for COVID-19.

The role of glycemic control, both prior and during hospitalization, on mortality from COVID-19 in diabetic patients is debated. Furthermore, it is not clear whether hyperglycemia has a direct effect or requires inflammatory mechanisms. To identify predictors of clinical outcomes (in-hospital mortality, length of hospitalization, respiratory failure, need for intensive care), considering hyperglycemia, inflammation markers and clinical history. Retrospective observational study of 291 diabetic patients hospitalized with COVID-19 in the Spedali Civili di Brescia from February 1th 2020 to March 31th 2021, with also outpatient electronic records. Glucose, inflammatory parameters, creatinine were collected within 24 h after admission to the hospital. A causal mediation analysis allowed the estimation of the direct and indirect effects of hyperglycemia on mortality. Glucose at admission ≥ 165 mg/dL and reduced renal function were associated with an increased risk of in-hospital mortality and length of hospitalization (all p < 0.001), while an increase in inflammatory parameters was significantly associated with an increased risk of all outcomes. High basophil count was associated with reduced mortality (p < 0.001). Hyperglycemia had a direct effect on mortality (p < 0.001); the indirect, through inflammatory markers, was significant only for absolute neutrophil count, C-Reactive protein and procalcitonin (p = 0.007, p = 0.029, p = 0.042). Patients with microvascular complications and with chronic kidney disease showed higher mortality (p = 0.03, p = 0.01). Hyperglycemia at admission, renal function and inflammatory parameters were found to be predictors of in-hospital mortality, while an increased basophil count was protective. Hyperglycemia had a direct effect on mortality, the indirect effect was only through few markers and markedly lower than the direct one.

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