Patient-specific forecasting of postradiotherapy prostate-specific antigen kinetics enables early prediction of biochemical relapse.
Biological sciences
Cancer
Oncology
Systems biology
Journal
iScience
ISSN: 2589-0042
Titre abrégé: iScience
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 101724038
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
18 Nov 2022
18 Nov 2022
Historique:
received:
12
03
2022
revised:
04
09
2022
accepted:
19
10
2022
entrez:
17
11
2022
pubmed:
18
11
2022
medline:
18
11
2022
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
The detection of prostate cancer recurrence after external beam radiotherapy relies on the measurement of a sustained rise of serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA). However, this biochemical relapse may take years to occur, thereby delaying the delivery of a secondary treatment to patients with recurring tumors. To address this issue, we propose to use patient-specific forecasts of PSA dynamics to predict biochemical relapse earlier. Our forecasts are based on a mechanistic model of prostate cancer response to external beam radiotherapy, which is fit to patient-specific PSA data collected during standard posttreatment monitoring. Our results show a remarkable performance of our model in recapitulating the observed changes in PSA and yielding short-term predictions over approximately 1 year (cohort median root mean squared error of 0.10-0.47 ng/mL and 0.13 to 1.39 ng/mL, respectively). Additionally, we identify 3 model-based biomarkers that enable accurate identification of biochemical relapse (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve > 0.80) significantly earlier than standard practice (p < 0.01).
Identifiants
pubmed: 36388979
doi: 10.1016/j.isci.2022.105430
pii: S2589-0042(22)01702-3
pmc: PMC9641236
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Pagination
105430Informations de copyright
© 2022 The Author(s).
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