Linking Immuno-Epidemiology Principles to Violence.
Mathematical model
Protective factors
Public health
Violence exposure
Journal
BMC public health
ISSN: 1471-2458
Titre abrégé: BMC Public Health
Pays: England
ID NLM: 100968562
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
18 11 2022
18 11 2022
Historique:
received:
13
10
2021
accepted:
26
10
2022
entrez:
19
11
2022
pubmed:
20
11
2022
medline:
23
11
2022
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Societies have always struggled with violence, but recently there has been a push to understand violence as a public health issue. This idea has unified professionals in medicine, epidemiological, and psychology with a goal to end violence and heal those exposed to it. Recently, analogies have been made between community-level infectious disease epidemiology and how violence spreads within a community. Experts in public health and medicine suggest an epidemiological framework could be used to study violence. Building upon results from community organizations which implement public health-like techniques to stop violence spread, we look to formalize the analogies between violence and infectious diseases. Then expanding on these ideas and using mathematical epidemiological principals, we formulate a susceptible-exposed-infected model to capture violence spread. Further, we ran example numerical simulations to show how a mathematical model can provide insight on prevention strategies. The preliminary simulations show negative effects of violence exposure have a greater impact than positive effects of preventative measures. For example, our simulation shows that when the impact of violence exposure is reduced by half, the amount of violence in a community drastically decreases in the long-term; but to reach this same outcome through an increase in the amount of after exposure support, it must be approximately fivefold. Further, we note that our simulations qualitatively agree with empirical studies. Having a mathematical model can give insights on the effectiveness of different strategies for violence prevention. Based on our example simulations, the most effective use of community funding is investing in protective factors, instead of support after violence exposure, but of course these results do not stand in isolation and will need to be contextualized with the rest of the research in the field.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
Societies have always struggled with violence, but recently there has been a push to understand violence as a public health issue. This idea has unified professionals in medicine, epidemiological, and psychology with a goal to end violence and heal those exposed to it. Recently, analogies have been made between community-level infectious disease epidemiology and how violence spreads within a community. Experts in public health and medicine suggest an epidemiological framework could be used to study violence.
METHODS
Building upon results from community organizations which implement public health-like techniques to stop violence spread, we look to formalize the analogies between violence and infectious diseases. Then expanding on these ideas and using mathematical epidemiological principals, we formulate a susceptible-exposed-infected model to capture violence spread. Further, we ran example numerical simulations to show how a mathematical model can provide insight on prevention strategies.
RESULTS
The preliminary simulations show negative effects of violence exposure have a greater impact than positive effects of preventative measures. For example, our simulation shows that when the impact of violence exposure is reduced by half, the amount of violence in a community drastically decreases in the long-term; but to reach this same outcome through an increase in the amount of after exposure support, it must be approximately fivefold. Further, we note that our simulations qualitatively agree with empirical studies.
CONCLUSIONS
Having a mathematical model can give insights on the effectiveness of different strategies for violence prevention. Based on our example simulations, the most effective use of community funding is investing in protective factors, instead of support after violence exposure, but of course these results do not stand in isolation and will need to be contextualized with the rest of the research in the field.
Identifiants
pubmed: 36401175
doi: 10.1186/s12889-022-14472-3
pii: 10.1186/s12889-022-14472-3
pmc: PMC9673202
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
2118Informations de copyright
© 2022. The Author(s).
Références
J Child Adolesc Trauma. 2009 Apr;2(2):106-123
pubmed: 21494415
Sci Rep. 2018 Jan 8;8(1):107
pubmed: 29311553
J Urban Health. 2013 Feb;90(1):27-40
pubmed: 22696175
BMC Public Health. 2022 Jan 5;22(1):13
pubmed: 34986810
Nat Med. 2020 Jun;26(6):855-860
pubmed: 32322102
Lancet Glob Health. 2022 Apr;10(4):e457-e458
pubmed: 35303444
J Adolesc Health. 2004 Mar;34(3):177-83
pubmed: 14967340
Epidemiology. 2018 Jan;29(1):142-150
pubmed: 28926374
J Adolesc Health. 2000 Mar;26(3):176-86
pubmed: 10706165