Contrasted impacts of weather conditions in species sensitive to both survival and fecundity: A montane bird case study.
IPM
climate change
fecundity
montane birds
rock partridge
survival
weather conditions
Journal
Ecology
ISSN: 1939-9170
Titre abrégé: Ecology
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 0043541
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
02 2023
02 2023
Historique:
revised:
16
09
2022
received:
23
05
2022
accepted:
18
10
2022
pubmed:
1
12
2022
medline:
3
2
2023
entrez:
30
11
2022
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
There is growing evidence that the Earth's climate is undergoing profound changes that are affecting biodiversity worldwide. This gives rise to the pressing need to develop robust predictions on how species will respond in order to inform conservation strategies and allow managers to adapt mitigation measures accordingly. While predictions have begun to emerge on how species at the extremes of the so-called slow-fast continuum might respond to climate change, empirical studies for species for which all demographic traits contribute relatively equally to population dynamics are lacking. Yet, climate change is expected to strongly affect them throughout their entire lifecycle. We built a 21-year integrated population model to characterize the population dynamics of the rock partridge (Alectoris graeca) in France, and tested the influence of nine weather covariates on demographic parameters. As predicted, both annual survival and breeding success were affected by weather covariates. Thick snow cover during winter was associated with low survival and small brood size the following breeding season. Brood size was higher with intermediate winter temperatures and snowmelt timing, positively correlated to breeding period temperature, but negatively correlated to temperature during the coldest fortnight and precipitation during the breeding period. Survival was positively correlated to winter temperature, but negatively to breeding period precipitation. Large-scale indices indicated that cold and wet winters were associated with small brood size the following breeding season but with high survival. Expected changes of weather conditions due to climate change are likely to impact demographic traits of the rock partridge both positively and negatively depending on the traits and on the affected weather variables. Future population dynamics will thus depend on the magnitude of these different impacts. Our study illustrates the difficulty to make strong predictions about how species with a population dynamic influenced by both survival and fecundity will respond to climate change.
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
e3932Informations de copyright
© 2022 The Ecological Society of America.
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