Revisiting the Geographical Distribution of Thyroid Cancer Incidence in Fukushima Prefecture: Analysis of Data From the Second- and Third-round Thyroid Ultrasound Examination.
discrete survival analysis
flexibly shaped spatial scan statistics
maximized excess events test (MEET)
thyroid cancer screening
Journal
Journal of epidemiology
ISSN: 1349-9092
Titre abrégé: J Epidemiol
Pays: Japan
ID NLM: 9607688
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
2022
2022
Historique:
entrez:
4
12
2022
pubmed:
5
12
2022
medline:
7
12
2022
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
After the first-round (Preliminary Baseline Survey) ultrasound-based examination for thyroid cancer in response to the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant in 2011, two rounds of surveys (Full-scale Survey) have been carried out in Fukushima Prefecture. Using the data from these surveys, the geographical distribution of thyroid cancer incidence over 6 or 7 years after the disaster was examined. Children and adolescents who underwent the ultrasound-based examinations in the second- and/or third-round (Full-scale) survey in addition to the first-round survey were included. With a discrete survival model, we computed age, sex, and body mass index standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) for municipalities. Then, we employed spatial statistics to assess geographic clustering tendency in SIRs and Poisson regression to assess the association of SIRs with the municipal average absorbed dose to the thyroid gland at the 59-municipality level. Throughout the second- and third-round surveys, 99 thyroid cancer cases were diagnosed in the study population of 252,502 individuals. Both flexibly shaped spatial scan statistics and maximized excess events test did not detect statistically significant spatial clustering (P = 0.17 and 0.54, respectively). Poisson regression showed no significant dose-response relationship: the estimated relative risks of lowest, middle-low, middle-high, and highest areas were 1.16 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.52-2.59), 0.55 (95% CI, 0.31-0.97), 1.05 (95% CI, 0.79-1.40), and 1.24 (95% CI, 0.89-1.74). There was no statistical support for geographic clustering or regional association with radiation dose measures of the thyroid cancer incidence in the cohort followed up to the third-round survey (fiscal years 2016-2017) in Fukushima Prefecture.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
After the first-round (Preliminary Baseline Survey) ultrasound-based examination for thyroid cancer in response to the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant in 2011, two rounds of surveys (Full-scale Survey) have been carried out in Fukushima Prefecture. Using the data from these surveys, the geographical distribution of thyroid cancer incidence over 6 or 7 years after the disaster was examined.
METHODS
Children and adolescents who underwent the ultrasound-based examinations in the second- and/or third-round (Full-scale) survey in addition to the first-round survey were included. With a discrete survival model, we computed age, sex, and body mass index standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) for municipalities. Then, we employed spatial statistics to assess geographic clustering tendency in SIRs and Poisson regression to assess the association of SIRs with the municipal average absorbed dose to the thyroid gland at the 59-municipality level.
RESULTS
Throughout the second- and third-round surveys, 99 thyroid cancer cases were diagnosed in the study population of 252,502 individuals. Both flexibly shaped spatial scan statistics and maximized excess events test did not detect statistically significant spatial clustering (P = 0.17 and 0.54, respectively). Poisson regression showed no significant dose-response relationship: the estimated relative risks of lowest, middle-low, middle-high, and highest areas were 1.16 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.52-2.59), 0.55 (95% CI, 0.31-0.97), 1.05 (95% CI, 0.79-1.40), and 1.24 (95% CI, 0.89-1.74).
CONCLUSION
There was no statistical support for geographic clustering or regional association with radiation dose measures of the thyroid cancer incidence in the cohort followed up to the third-round survey (fiscal years 2016-2017) in Fukushima Prefecture.
Identifiants
pubmed: 36464303
doi: 10.2188/jea.JE20210165
pmc: PMC9703926
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
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