Evaluation of editors' abilities to predict the citation potential of research manuscripts submitted to

To evaluate the ability of Cohort study. Manuscripts submitted to 10 Reviewed manuscripts were rated independently by attending editors for citation potential in the year of first publication plus the next year: no citations, below average (<10 citations), average (10-17 citations), or high (>17 citations). Predicted citations were subsequently compared with actual citations extracted from Web of Science (WOS). Of 534 manuscripts reviewed, 505 were published as full length articles (219 in Editors weren't good at estimating the citation potential of manuscripts individually or as a group; there is no wisdom of the crowd when it comes to

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Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts

Competing interests: All authors have completed the ICMJE uniform disclosure form at www.icmje.org/disclosure-of-interest/ and declare: no support from any organisation for the submitted work; SS, WEJW, and EL are employed by or seconded to The BMJ; JJK is a statistical editor for The BMJ; JW holds statistical or methodologic editor roles for Cochrane Gynaecology and Fertility, BJOG (International Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology), Reproduction and Fertility, and Fertility and Sterility; no other relationships or activities that could appear to have influenced the submitted work.