Predicting progression-free survival after systemic therapy in advanced head and neck cancer: Bayesian regression and model development.

Background

Advanced head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC) is associated with a poor prognosis, and biomarkers that predict response to treatment are highly desirable. The primary aim was to predict progression-free survival (PFS) with a multivariate risk prediction model.

Methods

Experimental covariates were derived from blood samples of 56 HNSCC patients which were prospectively obtained within a Phase 2 clinical trial (NCT02633800) at baseline and after the first treatment cycle of combined platinum-based chemotherapy with cetuximab treatment. Clinical and experimental covariates were selected by Bayesian multivariate regression to form risk scores to predict PFS.

Results

A 'baseline' and a 'combined' risk prediction model were generated, each of which featuring clinical and experimental covariates. The baseline risk signature has three covariates and was strongly driven by baseline percentage of CD33

Conclusions

This immune-based combined multimodality signature, obtained through longitudinal peripheral blood monitoring and validated in an independent cohort, presents a novel means of predicting response early on during the treatment course.

Funding

Daiichi Sankyo Inc, Cancer Research UK, EU IMI2 IMMUCAN, UK Medical Research Council, European Research Council (335326), Merck Serono. Cancer Research Institute, National Institute for Health Research, Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust and The Institute of Cancer Research.

Clinical trial number

NCT02633800.

Informations de copyright

© 2022, Barber, Mustapha, Flores-Borja et al.

Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts

PB is a shareholder of Nano Clinical Ltd, RM, FF, GA, GW, LD, AM, FW, JV, MG, JO, JA, ST, MD No competing interests declared, KN has received honoraria from Pfizer, GSK/Tesaro and Boheringer Ingleheim, and has had travel/accommodation/expenses paid for by Tesaro, SK has received research funding in the form of a grant from Novartis and Celgene, JD, JG is in employment with Daichii Sankyo, and has stock and other ownership interests, research funding within Daichii Sankyo and has had travel/accommodation/expenses paid for by Daichii Sankyo, KH has received honoraria from Amgen; Arch Oncology; AstraZeneca; Boehringer-Ingelheim; Bristol-Myers Squibb; Codiak; Inzen; Merck; MSD; Pfizer; Replimune and is on a speakers' bureau for Amgen, AstraZeneca; Bristol-Myers Squibb; Merck, MSD; Pfizer. KH has also received research funding from AstraZeneca, Boehringer-Ingelheim, MSD and Replimune, MF has received institutional research funding from AstraZeneca, Boehringer-Ingelheim, Merck and MSD and serves in a consulting or advisory role to Achilles, Astrazeneca, Bayer, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Celgene, Guardant Health, Merck, MSD, Nanobiotix, Novartis, Oxford VacMedix, Pfizer, Roche, Takeda, UltraHuman, AC has stock and other ownership interests with Saddle Point Science Limited, TN has received research funding from Astrazeneca and Daichii Sankyo. TN is a founder and shareholder in Nano Clinical Ltd, and PRB is a shareholder