Contact tracing & super-spreaders in the branching-process model.
Branching process
Contact tracing
Epidemic process
Super-spreader
Journal
Journal of mathematical biology
ISSN: 1432-1416
Titre abrégé: J Math Biol
Pays: Germany
ID NLM: 7502105
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
10 01 2023
10 01 2023
Historique:
received:
12
10
2020
accepted:
21
07
2021
revised:
18
07
2021
entrez:
10
1
2023
pubmed:
11
1
2023
medline:
13
1
2023
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
In recent years, it became clear that super-spreader events play an important role, particularly in the spread of airborne infections. We investigate a novel model for super-spreader events, not based on a heterogeneous contact graph but on a random contact rate: Many individuals become infected synchronously in single contact events. We use the branching-process approach for contact tracing to analyze the impact of super-spreader events on the effect of contact tracing. Here we neglect a tracing delay. Roughly speaking, we find that contact tracing is more efficient in the presence of super-spreaders if the fraction of symptomatics is small, the tracing probability is high, or the latency period is distinctively larger than the incubation period. In other cases, the effect of contact tracing can be decreased by super-spreaders. Numerical analysis with parameters suited for SARS-CoV-2 indicates that super-spreaders do not decrease the effect of contact tracing crucially in case of that infection.
Identifiants
pubmed: 36625934
doi: 10.1007/s00285-022-01857-6
pii: 10.1007/s00285-022-01857-6
pmc: PMC9830628
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
24Informations de copyright
© 2023. The Author(s).
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