Projecting COVID-19 cases and hospital burden in Ohio.

Humans COVID-19 / epidemiology SARS-CoV-2 Ohio / epidemiology Pandemics Hospitals
COVID-19 Dynamical Survival Analysis Prediction SIR model

Journal

Journal of theoretical biology
ISSN: 1095-8541
Titre abrégé: J Theor Biol
Pays: England
ID NLM: 0376342

Informations de publication

Date de publication:
21 03 2023
Historique:
received: 09 08 2022
revised: 13 12 2022
accepted: 26 12 2022
pubmed: 11 1 2023
medline: 1 2 2023
entrez: 10 1 2023
Statut: ppublish

Résumé

As the Coronavirus 2019 disease (COVID-19) started to spread rapidly in the state of Ohio, the Ecology, Epidemiology and Population Health (EEPH) program within the Infectious Diseases Institute (IDI) at The Ohio State University (OSU) took the initiative to offer epidemic modeling and decision analytics support to the Ohio Department of Health (ODH). This paper describes the methodology used by the OSU/IDI response modeling team to predict statewide cases of new infections as well as potential hospital burden in the state. The methodology has two components: (1) A Dynamical Survival Analysis (DSA)-based statistical method to perform parameter inference, statewide prediction and uncertainty quantification. (2) A geographic component that down-projects statewide predicted counts to potential hospital burden across the state. We demonstrate the overall methodology with publicly available data. A Python implementation of the methodology is also made publicly available. This manuscript was submitted as part of a theme issue on "Modelling COVID-19 and Preparedness for Future Pandemics".

Identifiants

DOI: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111404 PMID: 36627078 PMC: PMC9824941
pubmed: 36627078
pii: S0022-5193(22)00395-2
doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2022.111404
pmc: PMC9824941
pii:
doi:

Types de publication

Journal Article Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

Langues

eng

Sous-ensembles de citation

IM

Pagination

111404

Subventions

Organisme : NIAID NIH HHS
ID : R01 AI116770
Pays : United States

Commentaires et corrections

Type : UpdateOf

Informations de copyright

Copyright © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

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Auteurs

Wasiur R KhudaBukhsh (WR)

School of Mathematical Sciences, University of Nottingham, University Park Nottingham NG7 2RD, United Kingdom. Electronic address: wasiur.khudabukhsh@nottingham.ac.uk.

Caleb Deen Bastian (CD)

Program in Applied and Computational Mathematics, Princeton University, Fine Hall, Washington Road, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA. Electronic address: cbastian@princeton.edu.

Matthew Wascher (M)

Department of Mathematics, University of Dayton, 300 College Park, Dayton, OH 45469, USA. Electronic address: mwascher1@udayton.edu.

Colin Klaus (C)

Mathematical Biosciences Institute, The Ohio State University, 1735 Neil Avenue, Columbus, OH 43210, USA; College of Public Health, The Ohio State University, Cunz Hall, 1841 Neil Avenue, Columbus, OH 43210, USA; Infectious Diseases Institute, 208 Bricker Hall, 190 North Oval Mall, Columbus, OH 43210-1358, USA. Electronic address: klaus.68@mbi.osu.edu.

Saumya Yashmohini Sahai (SY)

Department of Computer Science and Engineering, The Ohio State University, 395 Dreese Laboratories, 2015 Neil Avenue, Columbus, OH 43210, USA. Electronic address: sahai.17@osu.edu.

Mark H Weir (MH)

College of Public Health, The Ohio State University, Cunz Hall, 1841 Neil Avenue, Columbus, OH 43210, USA; Infectious Diseases Institute, 208 Bricker Hall, 190 North Oval Mall, Columbus, OH 43210-1358, USA; The Sustainability Institute, The Ohio State University, 74 W. 18th Avenue, Columbus, OH 43210, USA. Electronic address: weir.95@osu.edu.

Eben Kenah (E)

College of Public Health, The Ohio State University, Cunz Hall, 1841 Neil Avenue, Columbus, OH 43210, USA; Infectious Diseases Institute, 208 Bricker Hall, 190 North Oval Mall, Columbus, OH 43210-1358, USA. Electronic address: kenah.1@osu.edu.

Elisabeth Root (E)

Institute for Disease Modeling, The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, WA, USA. Electronic address: elisabeth.root@gatesfoundation.org.

Joseph H Tien (JH)

Mathematical Biosciences Institute, The Ohio State University, 1735 Neil Avenue, Columbus, OH 43210, USA; College of Public Health, The Ohio State University, Cunz Hall, 1841 Neil Avenue, Columbus, OH 43210, USA; Infectious Diseases Institute, 208 Bricker Hall, 190 North Oval Mall, Columbus, OH 43210-1358, USA; Department of Mathematics, The Ohio State University, 231 West 18th Avenue, Columbus, OH 43210-1174, USA. Electronic address: tien.20@osu.edu.

Grzegorz A Rempała (GA)

Mathematical Biosciences Institute, The Ohio State University, 1735 Neil Avenue, Columbus, OH 43210, USA; College of Public Health, The Ohio State University, Cunz Hall, 1841 Neil Avenue, Columbus, OH 43210, USA; Infectious Diseases Institute, 208 Bricker Hall, 190 North Oval Mall, Columbus, OH 43210-1358, USA; Department of Mathematics, The Ohio State University, 231 West 18th Avenue, Columbus, OH 43210-1174, USA. Electronic address: rempala.3@osu.edu.

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Classifications MeSH

questionsmedicales.fr › Eucaryotes › Animaux › Chordés › Vertébrés › Mammifères › Eutheria › Primates › Haplorhini › Catarrhini › Hominidae › Humains › Projecting COVID-19 cases and hospital burden in Ohio.
questionsmedicales.fr › Maladies de l'appareil respiratoire › Infections de l'appareil respiratoire › Pneumopathie infectieuse › Pneumopathie virale › COVID-19 › Projecting COVID-19 cases and hospital burden in Ohio.
questionsmedicales.fr › Virus › Virus à ARN › Virus à ARN à brin positif › Nidovirales › Coronaviridae › Coronavirus › Betacoronavirus › Virus du SRAS › SARS-CoV-2 › Projecting COVID-19 cases and hospital burden in Ohio.
questionsmedicales.fr › Régions géographiques › Amériques › Amérique du Nord › États-Unis › États du Centre-Ouest des États-Unis › Ohio › Projecting COVID-19 cases and hospital burden in Ohio.
questionsmedicales.fr › Environnement et santé publique › Santé publique › Épidémies de maladies › Épidémies › Pandémies › Projecting COVID-19 cases and hospital burden in Ohio.
questionsmedicales.fr › Établissements, main d'oeuvre et services de soins de santé › Établissements de santé › Hôpitaux › Projecting COVID-19 cases and hospital burden in Ohio.