Spatio-Temporal Trends in the Incidence of Type 2 Diabetes in Germany.
Journal
Deutsches Arzteblatt international
ISSN: 1866-0452
Titre abrégé: Dtsch Arztebl Int
Pays: Germany
ID NLM: 101475967
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
17 03 2023
17 03 2023
Historique:
received:
08
09
2022
revised:
08
09
2022
accepted:
14
12
2022
medline:
25
5
2023
pubmed:
18
1
2023
entrez:
17
1
2023
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
There are no data on recent trends in the incidence rate of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in Germany. The aim of this study was to determine the sex-, age-, and region-specific trends in the T2D incidence rate between 2014 and 2019. Based on nationwide data from statutorily insured persons in Germany, negative binomial regression models were used to analyze age- and sex-specific trends in the T2D incidence rate. Age- and sex-adjusted trends were calculated for 401 administrative districts using a Bayesian spatio-temporal regression model. During the period concerned, approximately 450 000 new cases of T2D were observed each year among some 63 million persons. Taking all age groups together, the incidence rate decreased in both women and men, from 6.9 (95% confidence interval [6.7; 7.0]) and 8.4 [8.2; 8.6] respectively per 1000 persons in 2014 to 6.1 [5.9; 6.3] and 7.7 [7.5; 8.0] per 1000 persons in 2019. This corresponds to an annual reduction of 2.4% [1.5; 3.2] for women and 1.7% [0.8; 2.5] for men. The incidence rate increased in the age group 20-39 years. The age- and sex-adjusted incidence rate decreased in almost all districts, although regional differences persisted. The T2D incidence rate should be closely monitored to see whether the decreasing trend continues. One must not forget that the prevalence can rise despite decreasing incidence. For this reason, the findings do not necessarily mean a decrease in the disease burden of T2D and the associated demand on healthcare resources.
Sections du résumé
BACKGROUND
There are no data on recent trends in the incidence rate of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in Germany. The aim of this study was to determine the sex-, age-, and region-specific trends in the T2D incidence rate between 2014 and 2019.
METHODS
Based on nationwide data from statutorily insured persons in Germany, negative binomial regression models were used to analyze age- and sex-specific trends in the T2D incidence rate. Age- and sex-adjusted trends were calculated for 401 administrative districts using a Bayesian spatio-temporal regression model.
RESULTS
During the period concerned, approximately 450 000 new cases of T2D were observed each year among some 63 million persons. Taking all age groups together, the incidence rate decreased in both women and men, from 6.9 (95% confidence interval [6.7; 7.0]) and 8.4 [8.2; 8.6] respectively per 1000 persons in 2014 to 6.1 [5.9; 6.3] and 7.7 [7.5; 8.0] per 1000 persons in 2019. This corresponds to an annual reduction of 2.4% [1.5; 3.2] for women and 1.7% [0.8; 2.5] for men. The incidence rate increased in the age group 20-39 years. The age- and sex-adjusted incidence rate decreased in almost all districts, although regional differences persisted.
CONCLUSION
The T2D incidence rate should be closely monitored to see whether the decreasing trend continues. One must not forget that the prevalence can rise despite decreasing incidence. For this reason, the findings do not necessarily mean a decrease in the disease burden of T2D and the associated demand on healthcare resources.
Identifiants
pubmed: 36647586
pii: arztebl.m2022.0405
doi: 10.3238/arztebl.m2022.0405
pmc: PMC10213473
doi:
pii:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
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