Global Distribution of
Aedes
climate change
climate models
environmental indicators
forecasting
risk factors
statistical model
Journal
Insects
ISSN: 2075-4450
Titre abrégé: Insects
Pays: Switzerland
ID NLM: 101574235
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
03 Jan 2023
03 Jan 2023
Historique:
received:
18
11
2022
revised:
17
12
2022
accepted:
30
12
2022
entrez:
20
1
2023
pubmed:
21
1
2023
medline:
21
1
2023
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Arboviral mosquito vectors are key targets for the surveillance and control of vector-borne diseases worldwide. In recent years, changes to the global distributions of these species have been a major research focus, aimed at predicting outbreaks of arboviral diseases. In this study, we analyzed a global scenario of climate change under regional rivalry to predict changes to these species' distributions over the next century. Using occurrence data from VectorMap and environmental variables (temperature and precipitation) from WorldClim v. 2.1, we first built fundamental niche models for both species with the boosted regression tree modelling approach. A scenario of climate change on their fundamental niche was then analyzed. The shared socioeconomic pathway scenario 3 (regional rivalry) and the global climate model Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Earth System Model v. 4.1 (GFDL-ESM4.1; gfdl.noaa.gov) were utilized for all analyses, in the following time periods: 2021-2040, 2041-2060, 2061-2080, and 2081-2100. Outcomes from these analyses showed that future climate change will affect
Identifiants
pubmed: 36661976
pii: insects14010049
doi: 10.3390/insects14010049
pmc: PMC9860750
pii:
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Subventions
Organisme : National Council for Scientific and Technological Development
ID : 307432/2019-0/
Organisme : São Paulo Research Foundation
ID : 2021/06669-6
Organisme : Armed Forces Health Surveillance Division - Global Emerging Infections Surveillance
ID : P0065_22_WR and P0050_23_WR
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