Projected health impact of post-discharge malaria chemoprevention among children with severe malarial anaemia in Africa.
Journal
Nature communications
ISSN: 2041-1723
Titre abrégé: Nat Commun
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101528555
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
25 01 2023
25 01 2023
Historique:
received:
14
04
2022
accepted:
09
01
2023
entrez:
25
1
2023
pubmed:
26
1
2023
medline:
28
1
2023
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Children recovering from severe malarial anaemia (SMA) remain at high risk of readmission and death after discharge from hospital. However, a recent trial found that post-discharge malaria chemoprevention (PDMC) with dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine reduces this risk. We developed a mathematical model describing the daily incidence of uncomplicated and severe malaria requiring readmission among 0-5-year old children after hospitalised SMA. We fitted the model to a multicentre clinical PDMC trial using Bayesian methods and modelled the potential impact of PDMC across malaria-endemic African countries. In the 20 highest-burden countries, we estimate that only 2-5 children need to be given PDMC to prevent one hospitalised malaria episode, and less than 100 to prevent one death. If all hospitalised SMA cases access PDMC in moderate-to-high transmission areas, 38,600 (range 16,900-88,400) malaria-associated readmissions could be prevented annually, depending on access to hospital care. We estimate that recurrent SMA post-discharge constitutes 19% of all SMA episodes in moderate-to-high transmission settings.
Identifiants
pubmed: 36697413
doi: 10.1038/s41467-023-35939-w
pii: 10.1038/s41467-023-35939-w
pmc: PMC9876927
doi:
Substances chimiques
Antimalarials
0
Drug Combinations
0
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
402Subventions
Organisme : Wellcome Trust
Pays : United Kingdom
Organisme : Medical Research Council
Pays : United Kingdom
Informations de copyright
© 2023. The Author(s).
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