A procedure for predicting, illustrating, communicating, and optimizing patient-centered outcomes of epilepsy surgery using nomograms and Bayes' theorem.

Clinicians have an ethical obligation to obtain and convey relevant information about possible treatment outcomes in a manner that can be comprehended by patients. This contributes to the processes of informed consent and shared prospective decision-making. In epilepsy neurosurgery, there has historically been an emphasis on studying clinician-centered (e.g., seizure- and cognition-related) outcomes and using these data to inform recommendations and, by extension, to frame pre-surgical counseling with respect to patients' decisions about elective neurosurgery. In contrast, there is a relative dearth of available data related to patient-centered outcomes of epilepsy neurosurgery, such as functional (e.g., employment) status, and there is also a lack of methods to communicate these data to patients. Here, illustrated using a hypothetical case scenario, we present a potential solution to the latter of these problems using principles of evidence-based neuropsychology; published data on patient employment status before and after epilepsy neurosurgery; and Bayes' theorem. First, we reviewed existing literature on employment outcomes following epilepsy neurosurgery to identify and extract data relevant to our hypothetical patient, clinical question, and setting. Then, we used the base rate (prior probability) of post-surgical unemployment, contingency tables (to derive likelihood ratios), and Bayes' theorem to compute the conditional (posterior) probability of post-surgical employment status for our hypothetical patient scenario. Finally, we translated this information to an intuitive visual format (Bayesian nomogram) that can support evidence-based pre-surgical counseling. We propose that the application of our patient-centered decision-support process and visual aid will improve clinician-patient communication about prospective risks and benefits of epilepsy neurosurgery and will empower clinicians and patients to make informed decisions about whether or not to pursue elective neurosurgery with a greater degree of confidence and with more realistic and concrete expectations about possible outcomes. We further propose that clinicians and patients would benefit from incorporating this evidence-based framework into a broader sequence of function-focused epilepsy treatment that includes pre-surgical assessments and interventions ("prehabilitation"), neurosurgery, and post-surgical cognitive/vocational rehabilitation.

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Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.