PREDICTION OF MACULAR HOLE SIZE PROGRESSION BASED ON BASELINE OPTICAL COHERENCE TOMOGRAPHY FINDINGS.

To quantify the rate of idiopathic macular hole progression from presentation and identify factors that may influence stratification and urgency for surgical listing based on the initial optical coherence tomography scans. The minimal linear diameter (MLD), base diameter (BD), and hole height on nasal and temporal sides of idiopathic macular hole were measured on spectral domain optical coherence tomographies, on initial presentation and just before surgery. Mean hole height, hole height asymmetry (absolute difference between nasal and temporal height), MLD/BD, and MLD change per day (MLD/day) were calculated for each patient. Multivariable linear regression analysis with MLD/day as the dependent variable was performed to identify significant risk factors for MLD progression. Minimal linear diameter was grouped to quintiles: 1: ≤290 µ m, 2: >290 µ m and ≤385 µ m, 3: >385 µ m and ≤490 µ m, 4: >490 µ m and ≤623 µ m, and 5: >623 µ m. In 161 eyes (157 patients), we report significant associations with MLD/day: 1) MLD/BD ( P = 0.039) (i.e., wide BD relative to MLD lead to faster progression of MLD), 2) hole height asymmetry ( P = 0.006) (larger absolute difference between nasal and temporal hole height lead to faster progression), and 3) days between scans ( P < 0.001) (longer duration between scans had reduced MLD/day, indicating more rapid increase initially then plateaux), and relative to MLD Quintile 1, MLD Quintile 3 ( P = 0.002) and MLD Quintile 4 ( P = 0,008), and MLD Quintile 5 ( P < 0.001) all lead to a reduced MLD/day rate on multivariable regression. In addition to finding that the previously reported initial smaller MLD is a risk factor for rapid MLD progression, we report two novel findings, large hole height asymmetry and a low MLD/BD (wide base relative to MLD), that represent significant risk factors. These factors should be taken into consideration on presentation to stratify timing of surgery.