Improving population-level refractive error monitoring via mixture distributions.
epidemiology
hyperopia
myopia
population distribution
refractive error
statistical models
Journal
Ophthalmic & physiological optics : the journal of the British College of Ophthalmic Opticians (Optometrists)
ISSN: 1475-1313
Titre abrégé: Ophthalmic Physiol Opt
Pays: England
ID NLM: 8208839
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
05 2023
05 2023
Historique:
revised:
22
01
2023
received:
14
10
2022
accepted:
26
01
2023
medline:
6
4
2023
pubmed:
9
2
2023
entrez:
8
2
2023
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Sampling and describing the distribution of refractive error in populations is critical to understanding eye care needs, refractive differences between groups and factors affecting refractive development. We investigated the ability of mixture models to describe refractive error distributions. We used key informants to identify raw refractive error datasets and a systematic search strategy to identify published binned datasets of community-representative refractive error. Mixture models combine various component distributions via weighting to describe an observed distribution. We modelled raw refractive error data with a single-Gaussian (normal) distribution, mixtures of two to six Gaussian distributions and an additive model of an exponential and Gaussian (ex-Gaussian) distribution. We tested the relative fitting accuracy of each method via Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and then compared the ability of selected models to predict the observed prevalence of refractive error across a range of cut-points for both the raw and binned refractive data. We obtained large raw refractive error datasets from the United States and Korea. The ability of our models to fit the data improved significantly from a single-Gaussian to a two-Gaussian-component additive model and then remained stable with ≥3-Gaussian-component mixture models. Means and standard deviations for BIC relative to 1 for the single-Gaussian model, where lower is better, were 0.89 ± 0.05, 0.88 ± 0.06, 0.89 ± 0.06, 0.89 ± 0.06 and 0.90 ± 0.06 for two-, three-, four-, five- and six-Gaussian-component models, respectively, tested across US and Korean raw data grouped by age decade. Means and standard deviations for the difference between observed and model-based estimates of refractive error prevalence across a range of cut-points for the raw data were -3.0% ± 6.3, 0.5% ± 1.9, 0.6% ± 1.5 and -1.8% ± 4.0 for one-, two- and three-Gaussian-component and ex-Gaussian models, respectively. Mixture models appear able to describe the population distribution of refractive error accurately, offering significant advantages over commonly quoted simple summary statistics such as mean, standard deviation and prevalence.
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
445-453Informations de copyright
© 2023 The Authors. Ophthalmic and Physiological Optics published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of College of Optometrists.
Références
Holden BA, Fricke TR, Wilson DA, Jong M, Naidoo KS, Sankaridurg P, et al. Global prevalence of myopia and high myopia and temporal trends from 2000 through 2050. Ophthalmology. 2016;123:1036-42.
World Health Organization. World report on vision. Geneva: World Health Organization; 2019.
Mutti DO, Mitchell GL, Jones LA, Friedman NE, Frane SL, Lin WK, et al. Axial growth and changes in lenticular and corneal power during emmetropization in infants. Invest Ophthalmol Vis Sci. 2005;46:3074-80.
Ojaimi E, Rose KA, Morgan IG, Smith W, Martin FJ, Kifley A, et al. Distribution of ocular biometric parameters and refraction in a population-based study of Australian children. Invest Ophthalmol Vis Sci. 2005;46:2748-54.
Flitcroft DI. Is myopia a failure of homeostasis? Exp Eye Res. 2013;114:16-24.
Olivier J, Norberg MM. Positively skewed data: revisiting the Box-cox power transformation. Int J Psychol Res. 2010;3:69-78.
Thorn F. Mathematical models of refractive distributions suggest different underlying mechanisms in Chinese and Western myopes. Invest Ophthalmol Vis Sci. 2007;48:ARVO E-abstract 1025.
Rozema JJ, Tassignon MJ, for EVICR.net, Project Gullstrand Study Group. The bigaussian nature of ocular biometry. Optom Vis Sci. 2014;91:713-22.
Fricke TR, Keay L, Resnikoff S, Tahhan N. Global estimates of distance refractive errors and associated vision impairment. Prospero; 2021. Available from: https://www.crdyorkacuk/prospero/display_recordphp?ID=CRD42021267350. Accessed 12 Sep 2022.
R Core Team. R: a language and environment for statistical computing. Vienna, Austria: R Foundation for Statistical Computing; 2020.
RStudio Team. RStudio: integrated development for R. Boston, MA: RStudio PBC; 2020.
Yu Y. MixR: an R package for finite mixture modeling for both raw and binned data. J Open Source Software. 2022;7:4031. https://doi.org/10.21105/joss.04031
Schwarz G. Estimating the dimension of a model. Ann Stat. 1978;6:461-4.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHaNES). CDC; 2022. Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nhanes/Default.aspx. Accessed 18 Aug 2022.
Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency. Korea National Health and nutrition examination survey (KNHaNES). KDCA; 2022. Available from: https://www.knhanes.kdca.go.kr/knhanes/eng/index.do. Accessed 18 Aug 2022.
Bourne RR, Stevens GA, White RA, Smith JL, Flaxman SR, Price H, et al. Causes of vision loss worldwide, 1990-2010: a systematic analysis. Lancet Glob Health. 2013;1:e339-49.
Lewallen S, Lowdon R, Courtright P, Mehl GL. A population-based survey of the prevalence of refractive error in Malawi. Ophthalmic Epidemiol. 1995;2:145-9.
Hashemi H, Rezvan F, Ostadimoghaddam H, Abdollahi M, Hashemi M, Khabazkhoob M. High prevalence of refractive errors in a rural population: ‘Nooravaran Salamat’ Mobile Eye Clinic experience. Clin Experiment Ophthalmol. 2013;41:635-43.
Hashemi H, Rezvan F, Beiranvand A, Papi OA, Hoseini Yazdi H, Ostadimoghaddam H, et al. Prevalence of refractive errors among high school students in western Iran. J Ophthalmic Vis Res. 2014;9:232-9.
Murthy GV, Gupta SK, Ellwein LB, Muñoz SR, Pokharel GP, Sanga L, et al. Refractive error in children in an urban population in New Delhi. Invest Ophthalmol Vis Sci. 2002;43:623-31.
Shah SP, Jadoon MZ, Dineen B, Bourne RRA, Johnson GJ, Gilbert CE, et al. Refractive errors in the adult Pakistani population: the National Blindness and Visual Impairment Survey. Ophthalmic Epidemiol. 2008;15:183-90.
Nangia V, Jonas JB, Sinha A, Matin A, Kulkarni M. Refractive error in Central India: the Central India eye and medical study. Ophthalmology. 2010;117:693-9.
Liang YB, Wong TY, Sun LP, Tao QS, Wang JJ, Yang XH, et al. Refractive errors in a rural Chinese adult population. The Handan eye study. Ophthalmology. 2009;116:2119-27.
Peng L, Gao L, Zheng Y, Dai Y, Xie Q. Refractive errors and visual impairment among children and adolescents in southernmost China. BMC Ophthalmol. 2021;21:227. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12886-021-01993-5
Liu S, Ye S, Xi W, Zhang X. Electronic devices and myopic refraction among children aged 6-14 years in urban areas of Tianjin, China. Ophthalmic Physiol Opt. 2019;39:282-93.
Xu C, Pan C, Zhao C, Bi M, Ma Q, Cheng J, et al. Prevalence and risk factors for myopia in older adult east Chinese population. BMC Ophthalmol. 2017;17:191. https://doi.org/10.1186/s12886-017-0574-4
Pi LH, Chen L, Liu Q, Ke N, Fang J, Zhang S, et al. Refractive status and prevalence of refractive errors in suburban school-age children. Int J Med Sci. 2010;7:342-53.
Gupta A, Casson RJ, Newland HS, Muecke J, Landers J, Selva D, et al. Prevalence of refractive error in rural Myanmar: the Meiktila eye study. Ophthalmology. 2008;115:26-32.
Grosvenor T. Myopia in Melanesian school children in Vanuatu. Acta Ophthalmol Suppl. 1988;185:24-8.
Yotsukura E, Torii H, Ozawa H, Hida RY, Shiraishi T, Corso Teixeira I, et al. Axial length and prevalence of myopia among schoolchildren in the equatorial region of Brazil. J Clin Med. 2021;10:115. https://doi.org/10.3390/jcm10010115
Katz J, Tielsch JM, Sommer A. Prevalence and risk factors for refractive errors in an adult inner city population. Invest Ophthalmol Vis Sci. 1997;38:334-40.
Johnson GJ, Matthews A, Perkins ES. Survey of ophthalmic conditions in a Labrador community. I. Refractive errors. Br J Ophthalmol. 1979;63:440-8.
Brody BL, Roch-Levecq AC, Klonoff-Cohen HS, Brown SI. Refractive errors in low-income preschoolers. Ophthalmic Epidemiol. 2007;14:223-9.
Lee JH, Jee D, Kwon JW, Lee WK. Prevalence and risk factors for myopia in a rural Korean population. Invest Ophthalmol Vis Sci. 2013;54:5466-70.
Sawada A, Tomidokoro A, Araie M, Iwase A, Yamamoto T, Tajimi Study Group. Refractive errors in an elderly Japanese population: the Tajimi study. Ophthalmology. 2008;115:363-70.
Wu H-M, Seet B, Yap EP-H, Saw SM, Lim TH, Chia KS. Does education explain ethnic differences in myopia prevalence? A population-based study of young adult males in Singapore. Optom Vis Sci. 2001;78:234-9.
Pan CW, Wong TY, Lavanya R, Wu RY, Zheng YF, Lin XY, et al. Prevalence and risk factors for refractive errors in Indians: the Singapore Indian eye study (SINDI). Invest Ophthalmol Vis Sci. 2011;52:3166-73.
Watanabe S, Yamashita T, Ohba N. A longitudinal study of cycloplegic refraction in a cohort of 350 Japanese schoolchildren. Cycloplegic refraction. Ophthalmic Physiol Opt. 1999;19:22-9.
Junghans B, Kiely PM, Crewther DP, Crewther SG. Referral rates for a functional vision screening among a large cosmopolitan sample of Australian children. Ophthalmic Physiol Opt. 2002;22:10-25.
Wolfram C, Hohn R, Kottler U, Wild P, Blettner M, Bühren J, et al. Prevalence of refractive errors in the European adult population: the Gutenberg health study (GHS). Br J Ophthalmol. 2014;98:857-61.
Hyams SW, Pokotilo E, Shkurko G. Prevalence of refractive errors in adults over 40: a survey of 8102 eyes. Br J Ophthalmol. 1977;61:428-32.
Tideman JWL, Parssinen O, Haarman AEG, Khawaja AP, Wedenoja J, Williams KM, et al. Evaluation of shared genetic susceptibility to high and low myopia and hyperopia. JAMA Ophthalmol. 2021;139:601-9.
Hagen LA, Gjelle JVB, Arnegard S, Pedersen HR, Gilson SJ, Baraas RC. Prevalence and possible factors of myopia in Norwegian adolescents. Sci Rep. 2018;8:13479. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-31790-y
Olsen T, Arnarsson A, Sasaki H, Sasaki K, Jonasson F. On the ocular refractive components: the Reykjavik eye study. Acta Ophthalmol Scand. 2007;85:361-6.
Norn M. Myopia among the Inuit population of East Greenland. Longitudinal study 1950-1994. Acta Ophthalmol Scand. 1997;75:723-5.
Williams KM, Verhoeven VJ, Cumberland P, Bertelsen G, Wolfram C, Buitendijk GH, et al. Prevalence of refractive error in Europe: the European eye epidemiology (E(3)) consortium. Eur J Epidemiol. 2015;30:305-15.
Harrington SC, Stack J, Saunders K, O'Dwyer V. Refractive error and visual impairment in Ireland schoolchildren. Br J Ophthalmol. 2019;103:1112-8.
Atkinson J, Braddick O, Nardini M, Anker S. Infant hyperopia: detection, distribution, changes and correlates: outcomes from the Cambridge infant screening programs. Optom Vis Sci. 2007;84:84-96.
Hofstetter HW. Emmetropization - biological process or mathematical artifact? Am J Optom Arch Am Acad Optom. 1969;46:447-50.
Wildsoet CF. Active emmetropization - evidence for its existence and ramifications for clinical practice. Ophthalmic Physiol Opt. 1997;17:279-90.
Sorsby A, Benjamin B, Sheridan M, Stone J, Leary GA. Refraction and its components during the growth of the eye from the age of three. Memo Med Res Counc. 1961;301:1-67.
Sorsby A, Leary GA. A longitudinal study of refraction and its components during growth. Spec Rep Ser Med Res Counc. 1969;309:1-41.
Box GEP. Science and statistics. J Am Stat Assoc. 1976;71:791-9.
United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organization. UNESCO recommendation on open science. UNESCO; 2021. Available from: https://www.unesco.org/en/natural-sciences/open-science. Accessed 30 Aug 2022.
Marcum C, Donohue R. Breakthroughs for all: delivering equitable access to America's research. Washington, DC: The White House; 2022.