Future sea-level projections with a coupled atmosphere-ocean-ice-sheet model.
Journal
Nature communications
ISSN: 2041-1723
Titre abrégé: Nat Commun
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101528555
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
14 Feb 2023
14 Feb 2023
Historique:
received:
29
04
2022
accepted:
12
01
2023
entrez:
14
2
2023
pubmed:
15
2
2023
medline:
15
2
2023
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Climate-forced, offline ice-sheet model simulations have been used extensively in assessing how much ice-sheets can contribute to future global sea-level rise. Typically, these model projections do not account for the two-way interactions between ice-sheets and climate. To quantify the impact of ice-ocean-atmosphere feedbacks, here we conduct greenhouse warming simulations with a coupled global climate-ice-sheet model of intermediate complexity. Following the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) 1-1.9, 2-4.5, 5-8.5 emission scenarios, the model simulations ice-sheet contributions to global sea-level rise by 2150 of 0.2 ± 0.01, 0.5 ± 0.01 and 1.4 ± 0.1 m, respectively. Antarctic ocean-ice-sheet-ice-shelf interactions enhance future subsurface basal melting, while freshwater-induced atmospheric cooling reduces surface melting and iceberg calving. The combined effect is likely to decelerate global sea-level rise contributions from Antarctica relative to the uncoupled climate-forced ice-sheet model configuration. Our results demonstrate that estimates of future sea-level rise fundamentally depend on the complex interactions between ice-sheets, icebergs, ocean and the atmosphere.
Identifiants
pubmed: 36788205
doi: 10.1038/s41467-023-36051-9
pii: 10.1038/s41467-023-36051-9
pmc: PMC9929224
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
636Subventions
Organisme : National Science Foundation (NSF)
ID : 1903197
Informations de copyright
© 2023. The Author(s).
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