Dynamics of the African Swine Fever Spread in Poland.
ASF
Poland.
geostatistical analysis
spatial analysis
spread
Journal
Journal of veterinary research
ISSN: 2450-7393
Titre abrégé: J Vet Res
Pays: Poland
ID NLM: 101696630
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Dec 2022
Dec 2022
Historique:
received:
11
08
2022
accepted:
28
11
2022
entrez:
27
2
2023
pubmed:
28
2
2023
medline:
28
2
2023
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
African swine fever (ASF) is a lethal haemorrhagic disease of Suidae, present in Poland since 2014. The natural reservoir of ASF in Europe is the wild boar (Sus scrofa); however, human activity facilitates long-distance introductions of the disease. In ASF control it is important to identify areas at increased risk of infection. Such identification and estimation of the disease's progress and subsequent spread will help to identify the specific preventive action needs in given zones. Serving this purpose, this study is a spatial and statistical analysis of ASF spread through noted outbreak data. The spatial-temporal analysis was conducted on the basis of data including the time and location of all ASF outbreaks both in wild boars and domestic pigs in Poland in 2014-2021. The analysis indicates possible routes and directions for further ASF spread in Poland, estimates the annual increase of the affected area (approx. 25,000 km Given the growth trend, we can expect ASF to expand further into new territories of the country; however, it is important to realise that there is still a significant area to protect, because 60% of Poland remains ASF-free.
Identifiants
pubmed: 36846030
doi: 10.2478/jvetres-2022-0067
pii: jvetres-2022-0067
pmc: PMC9945001
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Pagination
459-471Informations de copyright
© 2022 Ł. Bocian et al. published by Sciendo.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
Conflict of Interest Conflict of Interests Statement: The authors declare that there is no conflict of interests regarding the publication of this article.
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