Projections of future coronary heart disease and stroke mortality in Japan until 2040: a Bayesian age-period-cohort analysis.
APC, age-period-cohort
BAPC, Bayesian age-period-cohort
Bayesian age-period-cohort
CHD, coronary heart disease
CI, credible intervals
CVD, cardiovascular disease
Coronary heart disease
RMSE, root mean square errors
Stroke
Vital statistics
y.o., years old
Journal
The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific
ISSN: 2666-6065
Titre abrégé: Lancet Reg Health West Pac
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101774968
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Feb 2023
Feb 2023
Historique:
received:
08
08
2022
revised:
19
09
2022
accepted:
19
10
2022
entrez:
7
3
2023
pubmed:
8
3
2023
medline:
8
3
2023
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
We aimed to estimate the future burden of coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke mortalities by sex and all 47 prefectures of Japan until 2040 while accounting for effects of age, period, and cohort and integrating them to be at the national level to account for regional differences among prefectures. We estimated future CHD and stroke mortality projections, developing Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models in population and the number of CHD and stroke by age, sex, and all 47 prefectures observed from 1995 to 2019; then applying these to official future population estimates until 2040. The present participants were all men and women aged over 30 years and were residents of Japan. In the BAPC models, the predicted number of national-level cardiovascular deaths from 2020 to 2040 would decrease (39,600 [95% credible interval: 32,200-47,900] to 36,200 [21,500-58,900] CHD deaths in men, and 27,400 [22,000-34,000] to 23,600 [12,700-43,800] in women; and 50,400 [41,900-60,200] to 40,800 [25,200-67,800] stroke deaths in men, and 52,200 [43,100-62,800] to 47,400 [26,800-87,200] in women). After adjusting these factors, future CHD and stroke deaths will decline until 2040 at the national level and in most prefectures. This research was supported by the Intramural Research Fund of Cardiovascular Diseases of the National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center (21-1-6, 21-6-8), JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number JP22K17821, and the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare Comprehensive Research on Life-Style Related (Diseases Cardiovascular Diseases and Diabetes Mellitus Program), Grant Number 22FA1015.
Sections du résumé
Background
UNASSIGNED
We aimed to estimate the future burden of coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke mortalities by sex and all 47 prefectures of Japan until 2040 while accounting for effects of age, period, and cohort and integrating them to be at the national level to account for regional differences among prefectures.
Methods
UNASSIGNED
We estimated future CHD and stroke mortality projections, developing Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) models in population and the number of CHD and stroke by age, sex, and all 47 prefectures observed from 1995 to 2019; then applying these to official future population estimates until 2040. The present participants were all men and women aged over 30 years and were residents of Japan.
Findings
UNASSIGNED
In the BAPC models, the predicted number of national-level cardiovascular deaths from 2020 to 2040 would decrease (39,600 [95% credible interval: 32,200-47,900] to 36,200 [21,500-58,900] CHD deaths in men, and 27,400 [22,000-34,000] to 23,600 [12,700-43,800] in women; and 50,400 [41,900-60,200] to 40,800 [25,200-67,800] stroke deaths in men, and 52,200 [43,100-62,800] to 47,400 [26,800-87,200] in women).
Interpretation
UNASSIGNED
After adjusting these factors, future CHD and stroke deaths will decline until 2040 at the national level and in most prefectures.
Funding
UNASSIGNED
This research was supported by the Intramural Research Fund of Cardiovascular Diseases of the National Cerebral and Cardiovascular Center (21-1-6, 21-6-8), JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number JP22K17821, and the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare Comprehensive Research on Life-Style Related (Diseases Cardiovascular Diseases and Diabetes Mellitus Program), Grant Number 22FA1015.
Identifiants
pubmed: 36879780
doi: 10.1016/j.lanwpc.2022.100637
pii: S2666-6065(22)00252-8
pmc: PMC9985054
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Pagination
100637Informations de copyright
© 2022 The Authors.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
We have no conflicts of interest to declare.
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