Seasonal trends in COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations, and mortality in the United States and Europe.
Journal
Scientific reports
ISSN: 2045-2322
Titre abrégé: Sci Rep
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101563288
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
08 03 2023
08 03 2023
Historique:
received:
06
09
2022
accepted:
06
03
2023
entrez:
8
3
2023
pubmed:
9
3
2023
medline:
11
3
2023
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Determining whether SARS-CoV-2 exhibits seasonality like other respiratory viruses is critical for public health planning. We evaluated whether COVID-19 rates follow a seasonal pattern using time series models. We used time series decomposition to extract the annual seasonal component of COVID-19 case, hospitalization, and mortality rates from March 2020 through December 2022 for the United States and Europe. Models were adjusted for a country-specific stringency index to account for confounding by various interventions. Despite year-round disease activity, we identified seasonal spikes in COVID-19 from approximately November through April for all outcomes and in all countries. Our results support employing annual preventative measures against SARS-CoV-2, such as administering seasonal booster vaccines in a similar timeframe as those in place for influenza. Whether certain high-risk individuals may need more than one COVID-19 vaccine booster dose each year will depend on factors like vaccine durability against severe illness and levels of year-round disease activity.
Identifiants
pubmed: 36890264
doi: 10.1038/s41598-023-31057-1
pii: 10.1038/s41598-023-31057-1
pmc: PMC9994397
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
3886Informations de copyright
© 2023. The Author(s).
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