The emergence of scale-free fires in Australia.
Environmental science
Forestry
Global change
Mathematical physics
Journal
iScience
ISSN: 2589-0042
Titre abrégé: iScience
Pays: United States
ID NLM: 101724038
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
17 Mar 2023
17 Mar 2023
Historique:
received:
29
08
2022
revised:
15
11
2022
accepted:
07
02
2023
entrez:
10
3
2023
pubmed:
11
3
2023
medline:
11
3
2023
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Between 2019 and 2020, during the country's hottest and driest year on record, Australia experienced a dramatic bushfire season, with catastrophic ecological and environmental consequences. Several studies highlighted how such abrupt changes in fire regimes may have been in large part a consequence of climate change and other anthropogenic transformations. Here, we analyze the monthly evolution of the burned area in Australia from 2000 to 2020, obtained via satellite imaging through the MODIS platform. We find that the 2019-2020 peak is associated with signatures typically found near critical points. We introduce a modeling framework based on forest-fire models to study the properties of these emergent fire outbreaks, showing that the behavior observed during the 2019-2020 fire season matches the one of a percolation transition, where system-size outbreaks appear. Our model also highlights the existence of an absorbing phase transition that might be eventually crossed, after which the vegetation cannot recover.
Identifiants
pubmed: 36895645
doi: 10.1016/j.isci.2023.106181
pii: S2589-0042(23)00258-4
pmc: PMC9988665
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Pagination
106181Informations de copyright
© 2023 The Authors.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
The authors declare no competing interests.
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