Modelling benzo(a)pyrene concentrations for different meteorological conditions - Analysis of lung cancer cases and associated economic costs.

Air pollution originating from the household presents a significant burden to public health, especially during the wintertime in countries, such as Poland, where coal substantially contributes to the energy market. One of the most hazardous components of particulate matter is benzo(a)pyrene (BaP). This study focusses on the impact of different meteorological conditions on BaP concentrations in Poland and associated impacts on human health and economic burdens. For this study, we used the EMEP MSC-W atmospheric chemistry transport model with meteorological data from the Weather Research and Forecasting model to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution of BaP over Central Europe. The model setup has two nested domains, with the inner domain at 4 km × 4 km over Poland, which is a hotspot for BaP concentrations. The outer domain covers countries surrounding Poland in coarser resolution (12 × 812 km), to ensure that transboundary pollution is properly characterized in the modelling. We investigated the sensitivity to variability in winter meteorological conditions on BaP levels and impacts using data from 3 years: 1) 2018, which represents average meteorological conditions during the winter season (BASE run), 2) 2010 with a cold winter (COLD), and 3) 2020 with a warm winter (WARM). The ALPHA-RiskPoll model was used to analyze the lung cancer cases and associated economic costs. The results show that the majority of Poland exceeds the target level of benzo(a)pyrene (1 ng m

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Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.