Modeling the positive testing rate of COVID-19 in South Africa using a semi-parametric smoother for binomial data.
COVID-19
South Africa
positive testing rate
semi-parametric smoothing model
transmission rates
Journal
Frontiers in public health
ISSN: 2296-2565
Titre abrégé: Front Public Health
Pays: Switzerland
ID NLM: 101616579
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
2023
2023
Historique:
received:
28
06
2022
accepted:
13
01
2023
entrez:
13
3
2023
pubmed:
14
3
2023
medline:
15
3
2023
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Identification and isolation of COVID-19 infected persons plays a significant role in the control of COVID-19 pandemic. A country's COVID-19 positive testing rate is useful in understanding and monitoring the disease transmission and spread for the planning of intervention policy. Using publicly available data collected between March 5th, 2020 and May 31st, 2021, we proposed to estimate both the positive testing rate and its daily rate of change in South Africa with a flexible semi-parametric smoothing model for discrete data. There was a gradual increase in the positive testing rate up to a first peak rate in July, 2020, then a decrease before another peak around mid-December 2020 to mid-January 2021. The proposed semi-parametric smoothing model provides a data driven estimates for both the positive testing rate and its change. We provide an online R dashboard that can be used to estimate the positive rate in any country of interest based on publicly available data. We believe this is a useful tool for both researchers and policymakers for planning intervention and understanding the COVID-19 spread.
Identifiants
pubmed: 36908419
doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2023.979230
pmc: PMC9992730
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
979230Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2023 Owokotomo, Manda, Cleasen, Kasim, Sengupta, Shome, Subhra Paria, Reddy and Shkedy.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
RSe was employed by Johnson & Johnson Company. The remaining authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.
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