A glimpse into the future of esophageal carcinoma in the United States: predicting the future incidence until 2040 based on the current epidemiological data.
Prediction
esophageal adenocarcinoma
esophageal squamous cell carcinoma
smoking
Journal
Journal of gastrointestinal oncology
ISSN: 2078-6891
Titre abrégé: J Gastrointest Oncol
Pays: China
ID NLM: 101557751
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
28 Feb 2023
28 Feb 2023
Historique:
received:
29
07
2022
accepted:
09
01
2023
entrez:
14
3
2023
pubmed:
15
3
2023
medline:
15
3
2023
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
Esophageal carcinoma is the sixth most common cause of death worldwide. With the changing paradigm of esophageal carcinoma, we sought to estimate the future burden of esophageal carcinoma by histology, age, sex, and race, which could help plan prevention, control, and treatment strategies for this cancer. Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) 14 registries were utilized to obtain incidence data from 2000 to 2016. We applied age-period-cohort models to estimate future esophageal carcinoma incidence rates and the estimated disease burden by multiplying incidence forecasts by corresponding US Census population projections. Our forecasting study suggests that the incidence (per 100,000 persons) of esophageal adenocarcinoma for the age group 40-65 years will increase from 2.12 in 2021 to 3.86 in 2040, which corresponds to an 82% increase over the course of 19 years (3.2% per year, 95% CI: -2.3% to 9.1%). In addition, we found a considerable decrease in the incidence of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma in the current age groups 40-65 years (-2.7% per year) and >65 years (-4.6% per year). Preventive efforts of esophageal adenocarcinoma should primarily target males of age up to 65 years and females of current age 40 to 65 years who will make up the older age group (>65 years) in 2040.
Sections du résumé
Background
UNASSIGNED
Esophageal carcinoma is the sixth most common cause of death worldwide. With the changing paradigm of esophageal carcinoma, we sought to estimate the future burden of esophageal carcinoma by histology, age, sex, and race, which could help plan prevention, control, and treatment strategies for this cancer.
Methods
UNASSIGNED
Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) 14 registries were utilized to obtain incidence data from 2000 to 2016. We applied age-period-cohort models to estimate future esophageal carcinoma incidence rates and the estimated disease burden by multiplying incidence forecasts by corresponding US Census population projections.
Results
UNASSIGNED
Our forecasting study suggests that the incidence (per 100,000 persons) of esophageal adenocarcinoma for the age group 40-65 years will increase from 2.12 in 2021 to 3.86 in 2040, which corresponds to an 82% increase over the course of 19 years (3.2% per year, 95% CI: -2.3% to 9.1%). In addition, we found a considerable decrease in the incidence of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma in the current age groups 40-65 years (-2.7% per year) and >65 years (-4.6% per year).
Conclusions
UNASSIGNED
Preventive efforts of esophageal adenocarcinoma should primarily target males of age up to 65 years and females of current age 40 to 65 years who will make up the older age group (>65 years) in 2040.
Identifiants
pubmed: 36915445
doi: 10.21037/jgo-22-729
pii: jgo-14-01-1
pmc: PMC10007944
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Pagination
1-10Informations de copyright
2023 Journal of Gastrointestinal Oncology. All rights reserved.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
Conflicts of Interest: All authors have completed the ICMJE uniform disclosure form (available at https://jgo.amegroups.com/article/view/10.21037/jgo-22-729/coif). SC has honoraria from Haliodx, QED Therapeutics, Natera, and speakers’ bureau for Natera. ZJ has consulting or advisory role for Novartis (Inst), QED Therapeutics (Inst), Lilly (Inst), GlaxoSmithKline (Inst), and Daiichi Sankyo/Astra Zeneca (Inst). AM serves on the advisory Board for Taiho oncology, Astrazeneca and QED Therapeutics. The other authors have no conflicts of interest to declare.
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