Risk factor analysis and construction of prediction models of gallbladder carcinoma in patients with gallstones.
clinical prediction model
gallbladder neoplasms
logistic (logit) regression
nomogram
risk factors
Journal
Frontiers in oncology
ISSN: 2234-943X
Titre abrégé: Front Oncol
Pays: Switzerland
ID NLM: 101568867
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
2023
2023
Historique:
received:
06
09
2022
accepted:
13
02
2023
entrez:
16
3
2023
pubmed:
17
3
2023
medline:
17
3
2023
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
Gallbladder carcinoma (GBC) is a biliary tract tumor with a high mortality rate. The objectives of this study were to explore the risk factors of GBC in patients with gallstones and to establish effective screening indicators. A total of 588 patients from medical centers in two different regions of China were included in this study and defined as the internal test samples and the external validation samples, respectively. We retrospectively reviewed the differences in clinicopathologic data of the internal test samples to find the independent risk factors that affect the occurrence of GBC. Then, we constructed three different combined predictive factors (CPFs) through the weighting method, integral system, and nomogram, respectively, and named them CPF-A, CPF-B, and CPF-C sequentially. Furthermore, we evaluated these indicators through calibration and DCA curves. The ROC curve was used to analyze their diagnostic efficiency. Finally, their diagnostic capabilities were validated in the external validation samples. In the internal test samples, the results showed that five factors, namely, age (RR = 3.077, 95% CI: 1.731-5.496), size of gallstones (RR = 13.732, 95% CI: 5.937-31.762), course of gallstones (RR = 2.438, 95% CI: 1.350-4.403), CEA (RR = 9.464, 95% CI: 3.394-26.392), and CA199 (RR = 9.605, 95% CI: 4.512-20.446), were independent risk factors for GBC in patients with gallstones. Then, we established three predictive indicators: CPF-A, CPF-B, and CPF-C. These models were further validated using bootstrapping with 1,000 repetitions. Calibration and decision curve analysis showed that the three models fit well. Meanwhile, multivariate analysis showed that CPF-B and CPF-C were independent risk factors for GBC in patients with gallstones. In addition, the validation results of the external validation samples are essentially consistent with the internal test samples. Age (≤58.5
Sections du résumé
Background
UNASSIGNED
Gallbladder carcinoma (GBC) is a biliary tract tumor with a high mortality rate. The objectives of this study were to explore the risk factors of GBC in patients with gallstones and to establish effective screening indicators.
Methods
UNASSIGNED
A total of 588 patients from medical centers in two different regions of China were included in this study and defined as the internal test samples and the external validation samples, respectively. We retrospectively reviewed the differences in clinicopathologic data of the internal test samples to find the independent risk factors that affect the occurrence of GBC. Then, we constructed three different combined predictive factors (CPFs) through the weighting method, integral system, and nomogram, respectively, and named them CPF-A, CPF-B, and CPF-C sequentially. Furthermore, we evaluated these indicators through calibration and DCA curves. The ROC curve was used to analyze their diagnostic efficiency. Finally, their diagnostic capabilities were validated in the external validation samples.
Results
UNASSIGNED
In the internal test samples, the results showed that five factors, namely, age (RR = 3.077, 95% CI: 1.731-5.496), size of gallstones (RR = 13.732, 95% CI: 5.937-31.762), course of gallstones (RR = 2.438, 95% CI: 1.350-4.403), CEA (RR = 9.464, 95% CI: 3.394-26.392), and CA199 (RR = 9.605, 95% CI: 4.512-20.446), were independent risk factors for GBC in patients with gallstones. Then, we established three predictive indicators: CPF-A, CPF-B, and CPF-C. These models were further validated using bootstrapping with 1,000 repetitions. Calibration and decision curve analysis showed that the three models fit well. Meanwhile, multivariate analysis showed that CPF-B and CPF-C were independent risk factors for GBC in patients with gallstones. In addition, the validation results of the external validation samples are essentially consistent with the internal test samples.
Conclusion
UNASSIGNED
Age (≤58.5
Identifiants
pubmed: 36923422
doi: 10.3389/fonc.2023.1037194
pmc: PMC10009222
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Pagination
1037194Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2023 Zhu, Luo, Zhang, Wang, Guo, Huang and Liu.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.
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