Development of a nomogram for predicting pathological complete response in luminal breast cancer patients following neoadjuvant chemotherapy.

Background

Given the low chance of response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) in luminal breast cancer (LBC), the identification of predictive factors of pathological complete response (pCR) represents a challenge. A multicenter retrospective analysis was performed to develop and validate a predictive nomogram for pCR, based on pre-treatment clinicopathological features.

Methods

Clinicopathological data from stage I-III LBC patients undergone NACT and surgery were retrospectively collected. Descriptive statistics was adopted. A multivariate model was used to identify independent predictors of pCR. The obtained log-odds ratios (ORs) were adopted to derive weighting factors for the predictive nomogram. The receiver operating characteristic analysis was applied to determine the nomogram accuracy. The model was internally and externally validated.

Results

In the training set, data from 539 patients were gathered: pCR rate was 11.3% [95% confidence interval (CI): 8.6-13.9] (luminal A-like: 5.3%, 95% CI: 1.5-9.1, and luminal B-like: 13.1%, 95% CI: 9.8-13.4). The optimal Ki67 cutoff to predict pCR was 44% (area under the curve (AUC): 0.69;

Conclusion

The combination of commonly available clinicopathological pre-NACT factors allows to develop a nomogram which appears to reliably predict pCR in LBC.

Informations de copyright

© The Author(s), 2023.

Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts

E.B. received speakers’ and travels’ fee from MSD, Astra-Zeneca, Celgene, Pfizer, Helsinn, Eli-Lilly, BMS, Novartis, and Roche. E.B. received institutional research grants from Astra-Zeneca, Roche.