Incidence of clinical atrial fibrillation and related complications using a screening algorithm at a nationwide level.

In a recent position paper, the European Heart Rhythm Association (EHRA) proposed an algorithm for the screening and management of arrhythmias using digital devices. In patients with prior stroke, a systematic screening approach for atrial fibrillation (AF) should always be implemented, preferably immediately after the event. Patients with increasing age and with specific cardiovascular or non-cardiovascular comorbidities are also deemed to be at higher risk. From a large nationwide database, the aim was to analyse AF incidence rates derived from this new EHRA algorithm. Using the French administrative hospital discharge database, all patients hospitalized in 2012 without a history of AF, and with at least a 5-year follow-up (FU) (or if they died earlier), were included. The yearly incidence of AF was calculated in each subgroup defined by the algorithm proposed by EHRA based on a history of previous stroke, increasing age, and eight comorbidities identified via International Classification of Diseases 10th Revision codes. Out of the 4526 104 patients included (mean age 58.9 ± 18.9 years, 64.5% women), 1% had a history of stroke. Among those with no history of stroke, 18% were aged 65-74 years and 21% were ≥75 years. During FU, 327 012 patients had an incidence of AF (yearly incidence 1.86% in the overall population). Implementation of the EHRA algorithm divided the population into six risk groups: patients with a history of stroke (group 1); patients > 75 years (group 2); patients aged 65-74 years with or without comorbidity (groups 3a and 3b); and patients < 65 years with or without comorbidity (groups 4a and 4b). The yearly incidences of AF were 4.58% per year (group 2), 6.21% per year (group 2), 3.50% per year (group 3a), 2.01% per year (group 3b), 1.23% per year (group 4a), and 0.35% per year (group 4b). In patients aged < 65 years, the annual incidence of AF increased progressively according to the number of comorbidities from 0.35% (no comorbidities) to 9.08% (eight comorbidities). For those aged 65-75 years, the same trend was observed, i.e. increasing from 2.01% (no comorbidities) to 11.47% (eight comorbidities). These findings at a nationwide scale confirm the relevance of the subgroups in the EHRA algorithm for identifying a higher risk of AF incidence, showing that older patients (>75 years, regardless of comorbidities) have a higher incidence of AF than those with prior ischaemic stroke. Further studies are needed to evaluate the usefulness of algorithm-based risk stratification strategies for AF screening and the impact of screening on major cardiovascular event rates.

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© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology.

Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts

Conflict of interest: None declared. Y.C. reports having received grants, consulting fees, honoraria, and/or delivering lectures for Servier, Novartis, Boehringer, Pfizer, and BMS. M.Z. received research grants from Amarin Corp. G.Y.H.L. is a consultant and speaker for BMS/Pfizer, Boehringer Ingelheim, Daiichi-Sankyo, Anthem. No fees are received personally. G.Y.H.L. is a co-principal investigator of the AFFIRMO project on multimorbidity in AF, which has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 899871. L.F. is consultant and speaker activities of small amounts for AstraZeneca, Bayer, BMS/Pfizer, Boehringer Ingelheim, Medtronic, Novartis, Novo, XO, and Zoll. No conflict of interest to disclose for the other authors.