A multi-strain model with asymptomatic transmission: Application to COVID-19 in the US.
Asymptomatic transmission
COVID-19
Control measures
Multi-strain model
Journal
Journal of theoretical biology
ISSN: 1095-8541
Titre abrégé: J Theor Biol
Pays: England
ID NLM: 0376342
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
21 05 2023
21 05 2023
Historique:
received:
23
06
2022
revised:
08
02
2023
accepted:
16
03
2023
medline:
14
4
2023
pubmed:
21
3
2023
entrez:
20
3
2023
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
COVID-19, induced by the SARS-CoV-2 infection, has caused an unprecedented pandemic in the world. New variants of the virus have emerged and dominated the virus population. In this paper, we develop a multi-strain model with asymptomatic transmission to study how the asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic infection influences the transmission between different strains and control strategies that aim to mitigate the pandemic. Both analytical and numerical results reveal that the competitive exclusion principle still holds for the model with the asymptomatic transmission. By fitting the model to the COVID-19 case and viral variant data in the US, we show that the omicron variants are more transmissible but less fatal than the previously circulating variants. The basic reproduction number for the omicron variants is estimated to be 11.15, larger than that for the previous variants. Using mask mandate as an example of non-pharmaceutical interventions, we show that implementing it before the prevalence peak can significantly lower and postpone the peak. The time of lifting the mask mandate can affect the emergence and frequency of subsequent waves. Lifting before the peak will result in an earlier and much higher subsequent wave. Caution should also be taken to lift the restriction when a large portion of the population remains susceptible. The methods and results obtained her e may be applied to the study of the dynamics of other infectious diseases with asymptomatic transmission using other control measures.
Identifiants
pubmed: 36940811
pii: S0022-5193(23)00064-4
doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2023.111468
pmc: PMC10027298
pii:
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.
Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
111468Informations de copyright
Copyright © 2023 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.
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