The extreme 2016 wheat yield failure in France.
compounding factors
extreme weather
food security
grain number
grain size
temporally and multivariate events
Journal
Global change biology
ISSN: 1365-2486
Titre abrégé: Glob Chang Biol
Pays: England
ID NLM: 9888746
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
06 2023
06 2023
Historique:
revised:
11
12
2022
received:
15
06
2022
accepted:
08
01
2023
medline:
3
5
2023
pubmed:
24
3
2023
entrez:
23
3
2023
Statut:
ppublish
Résumé
France suffered, in 2016, the most extreme wheat yield decline in recent history, with some districts losing 55% yield. To attribute causes, we combined the largest coherent detailed wheat field experimental dataset with statistical and crop model techniques, climate information, and yield physiology. The 2016 yield was composed of up to 40% fewer grains that were up to 30% lighter than expected across eight research stations in France. The flowering stage was affected by prolonged cloud cover and heavy rainfall when 31% of the loss in grain yield was incurred from reduced solar radiation and 19% from floret damage. Grain filling was also affected as 26% of grain yield loss was caused by soil anoxia, 11% by fungal foliar diseases, and 10% by ear blight. Compounding climate effects caused the extreme yield decline. The likelihood of these compound factors recurring under future climate change is estimated to change with a higher frequency of extremely low wheat yields.
Substances chimiques
Soil
0
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Sous-ensembles de citation
IM
Pagination
3130-3146Informations de copyright
© 2023 The Authors. Global Change Biology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.
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