Dynamic model of respiratory infectious disease transmission in urban public transportation systems.
Dynamic model
Public transportation system
Respiratory infectious disease
Journal
Heliyon
ISSN: 2405-8440
Titre abrégé: Heliyon
Pays: England
ID NLM: 101672560
Informations de publication
Date de publication:
Mar 2023
Mar 2023
Historique:
received:
23
10
2022
revised:
05
03
2023
accepted:
08
03
2023
entrez:
27
3
2023
pubmed:
28
3
2023
medline:
28
3
2023
Statut:
epublish
Résumé
During the epidemics of respiratory infectious diseases, the use of public transportation increases the risk of disease transmission. Therefore, we established a dynamic model to provide an in-depth understanding of the mechanism of epidemic spread via this route. We designed a computer program to model a rail transit system including four transit lines in a small town in which assumed 70% of the residents commute via these trams in weekdays and the remaining residents take the tram at random. The model could identify the best travel route for each passenger and the specific passengers onboard when the tram passed through each station, and simulate the dynamic spread of a respiratory pathogen as the passengers used the rail transit system. Based on the program operating, we estimated that all residents in the town were ultimately infected, including 86.6% who were infected due to the public transportation system. The remaining individuals were infected at home. As the infection rate increased, the number of infected individuals increased more rapidly. Reducing the frequency of trams, driving private cars or riding bicycles, showing nucleic acid certificates and wearing masks for passengers, etc., are effective measures for the prevention of the spread of epidemic diseases.
Identifiants
pubmed: 36967891
doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e14500
pii: S2405-8440(23)01707-3
pmc: PMC10034446
doi:
Types de publication
Journal Article
Langues
eng
Pagination
e14500Informations de copyright
© 2023 The Authors.
Déclaration de conflit d'intérêts
The authors declare no competing interests.
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